The outstanding problems faced by each link of coal market at present

At present, three issues are concerned: 1. When will the epidemic end? 2. When will mine mouth logistics return? Is the coal mine resumption policy effective? 3. Can the power plant cope with a straight-line rise in electricity? Can inventory cope? Origin: affected by novel coronavirus epidemic, coal mine production is limited, and the supply of pit resources is tight. Most coal mines in main producing areas indicate that the production time is after fifteen January, but the development of the epidemic situation and government departments need to be informed. At present, the output of coal mines is low, and the sale of the coal at the end is mainly based on the fire and the surrounding power plants, and the lump coal is mainly sold in the territory and the provincial provinces are the main steam producers. The control of transport vehicles is relatively strict. Most of the coal mines in Shaanxi Province have resumed production. As of February 9, 51 coal mines have resumed production, with a capacity of 312.55 million tons / year, a daily output of 757400 tons, and a coal inventory of 1.3999 million tons, which can basically guarantee the production and living needs of the whole province, and all the electric power enterprises have normal power generation. During the Spring Festival, the state-owned coal chemical enterprises have basically maintained normal production. There are 13 coal mines in Yulin, with a design capacity of 128 million tons.

Yesterday, the sales volume of Ordos City in Inner Mongolia reached 980000 tons, and 57 coal mines resumed construction, with a total production capacity of 315 million tons. Under the premise of strict control of the epidemic situation, 70 coal enterprises in Shanxi Province will be in normal production state. Shenhua will give priority to internal power plants and other large power plants. Prominent problems at the mine mouth: the policy of resumption of production is effective, it will take some time for some areas to fully recover, and the short-term supply is still tight. Northern ports: as of October 10, the inventory was 15.783 million tons, 2.891 million tons lower than that before the Spring Festival. Some auto ports are recovering, anchor ships are not many, and the number of ships shipped is small. Port transfer in volume is limited, inventory continues to fall, and the market coal supply is tight, especially low sulfur medium sulfur coal. Most of the suppliers with goods mainly rely on long-term cooperation to ensure supply. The upstream supplier's high-carbon low sulfur coal price rises by 4-6 yuan, with a small number of high transaction prices and strong market operation. Outstanding problem of Beifang port: the inventory has been greatly reduced, when will coal come? Jiangnei: inventory has increased, it is reported that it increased by 660000-750000 tons. The main quotation of cv5500 is 625-630 CNY/ton, which is 15 CNY/ton higher than that before the spring break. The main quotation of cv5000 is 560-570 CNY/ton, which is 20 CNY/ton higher than that before the spring break. The supply of 5000 and 4500 goods is a little insufficient.

The quotation of the traders continued to rise, and the traders in the river also made up the stock. Outstanding problem in jiangnei: the rise of inventory depends on how to digest it later. In terms of imported coal: in the early stage, coal power plants continued to pass the customs, and the horizontal control policy did not change. Domestic power plants have been bidding for imported coal from March to April, with good demand and strong quotation from foreign mines. Indonesia (cv3800) reported about $fob37 for small boats, and Australia coal (cv5500) reported about $fob58. At present, the advantage is that the logistics cost is low, but the coal price is also rising. Outstanding problem of imported coal: does the current epidemic prevention measures affect the follow-up coal? Electric power: due to the impact of the epidemic, and most of the units are delayed to work, with low operating rate and low load operation, thermal power is still affected by extra high pressure outside the region. With the temperature rising, gas and electricity are also starting to generate power, greatly squeezing the share of thermal power. The power consumption is only for civil use and part of the market. With the temperature rising, the civil power will also decrease, and the demand for thermal power will continue to compress. At present, the inventory of the six major power plants has increased by 1.226 million tons compared with that before the festival. Available days 44 days. The inventory of Shuishui coal power plant, especially the coastal power plant along the river, is high. With the shutdown of the unit, the maintenance of the power plant in spring will be carried out in advance.

Land power plants are greatly affected by the epidemic, and efforts are being made to restore the amount of coal transferred. With the finalization of the price of Changxie coal, the supply of Changxie coal will also be effectively improved. The power problem is: after the epidemic, whether the electricity is rising in a straight line or slowly, if according to the current inventory situation, it should be able to resist large electricity consumption. Logistics: due to the impact of the epidemic, domestic trade and foreign trade shipping prices are at a new low in history, and logistics costs are at the lowest point. However, due to the sealing of crew in Wenzhou and Taizhou, the personnel and available transportation capacity are limited. The logistics problem is: can the transportation capacity meet the market demand after returning to work? Later judgment: at present, the coal price has increased by 10-15 CNY/ton, and the mine mouth has been effectively restored to production. If the epidemic situation is effectively controlled, the power of coal price increase will be weakened, and it is expected that the coal price will run smoothly in the future, not excluding the possibility of a small drop.