January Ethylene Glycol Stabilizes and Stops Falling, Enters Range-bound Oscillation

January 16th, news:

January ethylene glycol prices in China stopped falling and fluctuated.

In January 2026, the price of ethylene glycol stabilized after a decline. According to the data, as of January 16, the average price of oil-based ethylene glycol in China was 3,808.33 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.45% from the average price of 3,864.17 CNY/ton on January 1.

Regarding port ethylene glycol, as of the 16th, spot contracts for port ethylene glycol (starting at 500 tons) are trading at a significant discount. From early to mid-January, this week’s spot contract basis has remained within the range of -120 to -160. As of market close, the basis quotes for next week’s contracts (before December 25) are between -130 and -125; for the contracts two weeks from now (before January 30), the basis is quoted at -125 to -120; for February contracts (before February 25), the basis is quoted at -90 to -85; for March contracts (before March 25), the basis is quoted at -40 to -35; and for April contracts (before April 25), the basis is quoted at +5 to +10.

The spot price of coal-based polyester-grade ethylene glycol in China (bulk, tax included, self-pickup) for factory pickup is 3240-3380 CNY/ton.

In the international market for monoethylene glycol (MEG), as of January 16, recent cargo prices were negotiated and transacted at around $441-443 per ton.

January 2026: Changes in Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory:

On January 15, 2026, the total spot inventory of monoethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 728,000 tons, an increase of 68,500 tons from the total spot inventory of 659,500 tons on December 29, 2025, in the main ports of East China.

Port inventory began accumulating in early October 2025 and reached its annual peak in mid-to-late December, rising from 355,000 tons to 755,000 tons. Starting in mid-December, inventory began to decline, falling back to 628,000 tons.

January Ethylene Glycol Stabilizes and Consolidates within a Range: An Analysis of the Reasons

In the first to mid-January 2026, the ethylene glycol price in China stabilized and fluctuated. The core factors were the support from the cost side, short-term supply disruptions, and the interplay between the off-season demand, high inventory, and the release of new production capacity. The spot price fluctuated narrowly within the range of 3650-3850 CNY/ton, without a one-sided trend.

1. Cost support and fluctuations form a price bottom support.

Crude oil prices are experiencing volatility: In January, international oil prices showed a volatile trend, influenced by geopolitical situations in regions such as the Middle East and South America. As an important cost component for ethylene glycol, crude oil prices provided phased support, helping to curb price declines.

Coal prices are relatively stable: Coal-to-ethylene glycol accounts for a high proportion of China's capacity. Although coal prices fluctuate, they have not seen a significant decline, providing some bottom support for ethylene glycol prices to a certain extent. However, coal-to-ethylene glycol is still in a loss-making state, and the cost support is limited.

2. Supply side: Short-term contraction coexists with long-term easing, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears.

Overseas plant maintenance and disruptions: Two sets of facilities in southern Taiwan and South Asia, with a combined capacity of 720,000 tons per year, have been fully shut down. In the Middle East, some facilities have reduced operations or undergone maintenance due to cost or geopolitical factors, leading to a short-term decrease in import volumes and easing supply pressures.

New capacity releases and plant restarts in China: A new 800,000-ton-per-year facility in South China started operations in early January, and new plants such as BASF Zhanjiang are undergoing commissioning. Previously shut-down facilities are gradually restarting, maintaining an overall operating rate of over 70% in China. The increase in supply is clear, with strong expectations of long-term looseness.

Port inventory continues to accumulate: The continuous accumulation of ethylene glycol inventory at ports in eastern China has put pressure on price recovery due to high inventory levels.

3. Demand side: The off-season effect combined with the approaching Chinese New Year results in a lack of incremental demand, although there is still some underlying demand.

The polyester industry shows clear characteristics of the off-season: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream polyester enterprises in China enter the traditional off-season. The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to around 56%, and the operating rate of polyester production is also gradually declining. In February, nearly 10,000,000 tons of polyester production capacity is planned to be shut down for maintenance, leading to a strong expectation of demand contraction.

Essential demand provides a floor: The polyester industry still has certain essential demand, and some companies are stocking up ahead of the holiday season, providing some support for ethylene glycol prices and preventing them from continuing to fall sharply.

4. Market Sentiment and Expectations: A Mix of Bulls and Bears, the Volatile Pattern is Hard to Change

Geopolitical Impact: Geopolitical conflicts in regions such as the Middle East and South America have sparked market concerns about supply stability, prompting a temporary rebound in prices. However, as these conflicts have not escalated further, the support they provide remains limited.

As the Spring Festival holiday approaches: market participants are in a wait-and-see mood, traders are actively shipping goods, but buying interest is moderate. The basis for near-term supplies has weakened, and prices are showing a wide-range fluctuation.