Why is the price of weak coal rising in the coal market?

Under the influence of the new type of coronary pneumonia, the pace of returning to work in coal mines nationwide was delayed, and the daily consumption of the downstream power plants was limited. However, due to the low coal storage in the port, the price of power coal ushered in a wave of increase. According to the latest statistics of China Coal Resources Network on February 12, the price of cci5500 power coal was reported as 576 CNY/ton, rising continuously for eight consecutive periods, with a cumulative increase of 15 CNY/ton during the period, 2.7% higher than that of the same period last month; the price of cci5000 power coal was reported as 516 CNY/ton, 2.8% higher than that of the same period last month. Zhang Feilong, director of Yimei Information Research Institute, told the interface news that in terms of upstream supply, the coal mine operation rate and load are not high, and transportation and logistics are blocked; in terms of downstream operation, the coal demand of power plants is also low, which is basically the low point since the spring Festival, and the market as a whole is characterized by weak supply and demand. In the context of weak supply and demand, why is coal price rising? This is mainly due to the "weak" supply side. "Before the Spring Festival, the port inventory has been reduced. At present, inventory is basically at a two-year low. In addition, the coal mine construction was blocked and the supply could not keep up, so the price began to rise. " Zhang Feilong said.

As of February 13, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 17.068 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.04%; the daily coal consumption was 385000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.48%; the available days were 44.3 days, a year-on-year increase of 5.2 days. Yide futures analyst Guan Dali told interface news that the epidemic had a great impact on coal supply and demand. "The return to work of coal mines is slow, and there are problems in transportation, which leads to a price rise of one yuan a day.". "At present, large enterprises are basically back to work, but the progress of local mines is slow, and the overall return rate of coal mines in China is about 60%." Said Guan. Ordos coal network also believes that the impact of the epidemic on the supply side is higher than the demand side, and it is expected that coal prices will continue to rise this week. According to the China Coal Association, most enterprises in the main coal producing areas will resume production after the 15th of the first month, CCTV News reported on February 12. Ordos in Inner Mongolia, Datong in Shanxi and Yulin in Shaanxi are three major coal producing cities in China. According to the latest statistics of China Coal Association, by February 10, most of the coal mines in Shaanxi Province had resumed production, with 51 coal mines resumed production, with an average daily output of 757400 tons; 70 coal enterprises in Shanxi Province were also in normal production. According to the latest Fenwei Energy Research Report, Ordos recently released a batch of list of resumption of production, accounting for about 27% of its total production capacity. According to the latest research report of Fenwei energy, this year's holiday is 10-14 days longer than that of previous years, and the daily coal consumption of power plants remains low.

After the end of the previous Spring Festival holiday, the daily consumption gradually returned to the level of 600000 tons. Since the start of Spring Festival holiday this year (January 21-february 7), the daily consumption of coastal power plants has been reduced from 520000 tons to 370000 tons. At present, the downstream has not resumed work on a large scale, and it is still possible to continue to decline in the later stage. The agency believes that if the temperature continues to recover, the daily consumption of the power plant faces a further decline risk. Ordos coal network said that with the upstream and downstream industrial enterprises returning to work, the daily energy consumption of the power plant is expected to rise to more than 450000 tons next week. Later this month, if the epidemic alarm can be lifted, the coastal coal transportation market is expected to recover rapidly, and the double high of coal supply and demand will reappear.