The trend of domestic coal market in April

Analysis of market operation in March. First, the process of the downstream power industry's resumption of production and construction is slow, and the demand for electric coal is insufficient. The average daily coal consumption of six major power plants in this phase is 535400 tons, a decrease of 128300 tons or 19.33% compared with the same period last year; Second, the resumption of coal production actively led to the continuous accumulation of coal inventory. At present, the total coal inventory of the four ports around Bohai Sea (Qinhuangdao, Jingtang Port, Caofeidian and Huanghua Port) has reached 23.2 million tons, an increase of 8.28 million tons, or 55.50% compared with the end of last month. Third, the heating period in winter is coming to an end, and the bearish atmosphere of the market has been enhanced. At present, the spot closing price of 5500 kcal in Jingtang Port is 538 CNY/ton, and the spot closing price of 4500 kcal is 424 CNY/ton, down 33 CNY/ton and 38 CNY/ton respectively compared with the end of last month. As of March 27, the spot closing price of 5500 kcal of power coal, mainly exported to Newcastle port in China, closed at $54.5/ton, down $3.8/ton from the end of last month. Coking coal market is weak.

In March, the domestic coking coal market was stable and weak, and the market coal price in some regions was somewhat reduced, with the decline mainly of 30-70 CNY/ton, and the price of individual low sulfur high-quality coking coal with large increase in the early stage fell by 200 CNY/ton. The influencing factors are as follows: first, the continuous weakness of the downstream coke market has insufficient support for the coking coal market; second, with the continuous promotion of the domestic coal mine resumption process, the resource supply capacity in some regions tends to be loose, and the market pessimism gradually strengthens. As of March 30, the domestic CIF price of Australia's second tier main coking coal was 144.5 US dollars / ton, down 13.5 US dollars / ton from the end of last month. The steel market was adjusted by shocks, and the overall operation was weak. The latest steel price index released by CISA is 99.21 points, a slight decrease of 1.18% compared with the end of last month. According to the average spot prices of ten major cities in China, the prices of three-level thread and medium and heavy plate are 6 CNY/ton and 32 CNY/ton higher than the end of last month respectively, the high line is 14 CNY/ton lower than the end of last month, and the cold rolling is the biggest drop, 205 CNY/ton lower than the end of last month. The influencing factors are as follows: first, with the alleviation of the epidemic situation, infrastructure and real estate industries have returned to work one after another, and the demand for building materials has picked up to a certain extent; second, the resumption process of automobile and other industries is slow, resulting in the lack of market demand for cold-rolled plates.

Although the steel inventory has fallen, it is still at a high level. The steel inventory of steel mills and key cities in this period is 40.65 million tons, down 4.28 million tons from the high in mid March, down 9.53%, up 27.64 million tons from the low at the end of November last year, up 212.45%, which still restrains the short-term market. According to the latest statistics, the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity of national steel plants is 81.5%, 1.81 percentage points higher than that of the same period last month. The coke market fell sharply. In March, the domestic coke market showed a general decline trend, and the coke prices in East China, North China and Northeast China continued to decline, with a cumulative decline of 150 CNY/ton. The influencing factors are as follows: first, the continuous decline of the downstream steel market and the accumulation of steel inventory lead to the greater pressure on the capital cost of the steel plant, which increases the pressure on the price of coke and other raw materials; second, the operating rate of the coking plant rises after the recovery of transportation, and the gradual increase of the coke inventory in the plant weakens the bargaining power. 02 analysis on the operation of Tangshan regional market various varieties of steel market trend differentiation, coke market fell sharply. At present, the price of Tangshan billet is 3070 CNY/ton, slightly up 10 CNY/ton compared with the end of last month. From the perspective of the price of the five kinds of building materials and plates tracked, the prices of cold rolling and hot rolling decreased by 210 CNY/ton and 20 CNY/ton respectively compared with the end of last month, and the prices of high-speed wire, three-stage thread and medium and thick plate increased by 40 CNY/ton, 70 CNY/ton and 150 CNY/ton respectively compared with the end of last month. As of March 30, the average price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 1690 CNY/ton, 150 CNY/ton lower than that at the end of last month.

In terms of production, the latest statistics of blast furnace capacity utilization rate in Tangshan area is 73.79%, up 4.32 percentage points from the end of last month. Coking time of coking plant is kept at 20-36 hours under the influence of environmental protection production restriction policy. 03 novel coronavirus pneumonia market in April, the market trend of April, and the factors affecting the domestic coal market trend are analyzed as follows: first, the new crown pneumonia is relieved and the enterprises start to recover. The current statistics of SMEs' recovery rate has reached over 70%, and the financial and monetary policies have been supporting the domestic economic operation. Second, the continued recovery of the operating rate of the downstream infrastructure and other industries has a certain pull on the steel demand; third, the domestic coal import policy limits the number of coal customs clearance in Australia, Indonesia and other countries. First, the novel coronavirus pneumonia caused the global economic recession, which overlay the US's sharp interest rate cut, and China's export demand was affected or the domestic trade pressure increased. The two is the end of the winter heating period, the demand for coal for residents to decline, the electricity coal to enter the traditional demand off-season; the three is the gradual restoration of the coal clearance channel outside Mongolia, and the improvement of the domestic coking coal market's supplementary ability. Fourth, the steel stock is still at a high level, and the progress of de stocking in the later stage needs to be further observed the change of downstream demand and the start-up of the steel plant. To sum up, the domestic steel market has a certain demand pull in April, but due to the large inventory pressure, the overall or performance of the operation is concussion and weak; the coke market is supported by cost, and there is insufficient falling space, which does not rule out the possibility of a stable rebound; the coking coal market has increased downward pressure with the time lag effect and the impact of loose supply and demand; The supply and demand of power coal market tends to be loose, and the price will be further explored.