China's basic chemical products may be surplus in three years

In the view of many industry experts, as large-scale refining and chemical integration projects are launched, in addition to further aggravating the situation of surplus of refined oil, the production capacity of basic chemicals such as aromatics and olefins will rapidly increase, and will also appear to be surplus in the next three years.

Taking PX (para-xylene) as an example, statistics from Zhongyu Information show that in January 2019, China's monthly production of PX was about 800,000 tons, and monthly consumption reached 2.1 million tons; by March of this year, monthly production of PX It has risen to about 1.59 million tons, almost doubled, and monthly consumption is about 2.37 million tons. At the same time, there are 13 new PX projects newly built, renovated and expanded in 2019-2022, involving 32.8 million tons of new PX production capacity, and another 6 planned projects totaling 7 million tons / year of PX production schedule.

"Like Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical, which have been put into production, including Lianyungang Petrochemical and Tongkun Qinzhou Petrochemical, which will be put into production later, are dominated by large textile and chemical fiber households at the end of the industrial chain. They use PX and ethylene as basic chemical raw materials. In the past two years, China's PX import volume has been around 15 million tons, and its dependence on foreign countries is very large. In order to increase competitiveness and reduce the cost of the industrial chain, these companies have begun to expand the entire industrial chain from a drop of oil to a thread. "Zhongyu An Guang, an information analyst, told reporters, "But the crazy expansion of production capacity will inevitably lead to a surplus of related products in the future, and some enterprises that lack industrial chain support will gradually be marginalized or eliminated."

Recently released "China Oil and Gas Industry Development Analysis and Outlook Report Blue Book (2019-2020)" also pointed out that in 2019 the world's new ethylene production capacity is as high as 11.8 million tons / year, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year, the largest increase in nearly 20 years. China's ethylene production reached 20.523 million tons, an increase of 2.113 million tons year-on-year. It is expected that the global ethylene production capacity will increase by 10 million tons per year in 2020. China's basic petrochemical raw material production capacity accounts for more than 65% of the world's total. Polyolefins and other products are facing high inventory pressure, and the industry's prosperity has further declined.

Pang Guanglian also said that he is currently worried about the surplus of basic chemical products. "After some projects under construction and planning are put into operation in the future, these basic chemical products will be in excess. This is why we have to analyze the capacity of many chemical products every year and issue early warning reports in advance."

Should open up a new blue ocean in the chemical industry

In Anguang's view, current companies in the refining and chemical industry are more concerned about the present moment, wanting to seize the opportunity for transformation, but lack of in-depth research and long-term research and judgment of the industry, will inevitably lead to the phenomenon of follow-up, blindly flooding into the same field .

In this regard, Pang Guanglian also said frankly: "Industry competition and survival of the fittest are inevitable. Blind entry into a certain field may be the day of loss. Enterprises should be vigilant and consider the future development of the industry in an orderly and forward-looking manner. Follow the trend. Relevant companies must be actively encouraged to occupy the commanding heights in certain subdivided areas, including the blue ocean area, and continuously improve their competitiveness. "

Many experts pointed out that in addition to basic chemicals such as ethylene and PX, it can be used as a basis to enter more and broader fields. For example, the direction of olefins we are discussing, α-olefins and similar new technologies and new application fields, is the direction that our country will go in the future.

In fact, it is not unprecedented to cultivate in the subdivided fields of chemical products to obtain the right to speak internationally. Take Shandong Wanhua Chemical as an example. As a leading chemical enterprise in China, it is the leader in the subdivision fields such as MDI and TDI. It is currently ranked first in the world. Many multinational companies are making reference to the price of Wanhua Chemical in order to compete Own price.

"We must march from the pursuit of enterprise scale to the champion of the subdivided field, to be a leader in a subdivided field, from the pursuit of short-term performance to the pursuit of long-term value. At the same time, use modern methods, including digital and intelligent transformation, to do real Smart factories to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and lean management to create new competitiveness. The other is technological innovation, whether it is from the perspective of market strategy, personnel integration, or value-driven capabilities, these are long-term considerations To effectively improve the technological innovation capabilities of enterprises. "Pang Guanglian suggested.