The European Union's crop monitor has again cut its forecast for maize yield per unit area in the EU

Oct 24 - The European Union's crop monitoring agency MARS on Monday further cut its forecast for this year's drought-hit EU maize yield, but sowing conditions for winter cereals were mostly favourable.

The MARS report forecasts an average EU cereal and maize yield of 6.34 tonnes/ha this year, down 1% from the 6.39 tonnes/ha forecast in September, 20% lower than last year and 19% lower than the previous five-year average.

Sunflower and soybean yield forecasts have also been revised downward, falling 16 and 18 percent, respectively, below the five-year average.

As the growing season ends, the effects of the summer drought become more pronounced, the report said.

This year, crop yields have been hit by a record drought and a number of heat waves during the critical growing stages of summer crops such as maize. But winter crops that had been harvested before the drought, such as wheat, were spared.

In addition, some farmers harvest maize as silage, which also affects the yield of grain maize.

Heavy rains since late summer have delayed the harvest of maize in Eastern European countries such as Romania and Hungary, but have not helped already mature crops.

The International Grains Council on Thursday revised the 2022/23 EU maize crop down to 53.5 million tonnes, down from an earlier forecast of 56.2 million tonnes.

On the same day, analyst firm Strategic Grains cut its forecast for EU corn production in 2022 to 50.4 million tonnes, down from its September forecast of 52.9 million tonnes, almost 25% lower than its June forecast of 66.8 million tonnes, and 28% lower than the 70.2 million tonnes in 2021, marking the lowest yield in 15 years.

Conditions for sowing winter wheat are favorable

Widespread rainfall restores soil moisture and helps fall sown of winter grains such as wheat, the report said. In areas facing persistent drought, such as northwest Italy and southern Spain, there is still a long window of sowing time.

Temperatures from November to January are likely to be higher than normal

For the short-term forecast, temperatures are expected to be above the long-term average (1991-2021) for most of Europe for the period 20-29 October, with the exception of the western Iberian Peninsula, European parts of Russia, and most of Turkey. Central France, parts of Belgium, Germany, Australia and the western Balkans are expected to see temperatures 6 to 8 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. Daytime highs will be above 15C in most parts of Europe, with temperatures in south-east Spain, the French Pyrenees and southern Italy likely to reach between 25C and 30C. In contrast, temperatures in the northeastern part of European Russia and parts of Turkey are expected to be 2 degrees Celsius below the long-term average, with daytime maxima in European Russia expected to be between 0 and 10 degrees Celsius.

Long-term forecasts suggest that much of Europe is likely to experience warmer than normal temperatures from November to January, with occasional cold snaps.