The turning point of coastal coal market is coming

In the first quarter, the national power generation was 1582.2 billion kwh, down 6.8% year on year. In the first quarter, the port's main cargo coal showed a trend of market downturn and weak supply and demand. The coal throughput of northern port fell sharply by 18.2%. In addition, the spread of the epidemic in the world, many countries began to seal the country, seal the port, resulting in increased downward pressure on the economy, many export processing enterprises in the southeast coast can not fully resume production due to lack of orders, power consumption decreased. In the first half of April, coal procurement in the lower reaches continued to be sluggish, power plants mainly went to storage, and coal prices continued to fall; in the first half of April, the coal throughput of the port around Bohai Sea decreased by as much as 45% year-on-year, with an increase in the decline. In the first quarter, China imported 95.77 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, hitting the domestic market.

In the middle of April, the temperature in many parts of the country warmed up, and some power plants began routine maintenance. The daily consumption of six coastal power plants was kept at 564000 tons. Due to the high inventory, the available days were as high as 28 days. In the short term, the downstream still mainly consumed inventory. In terms of place of origin, affected by the continuous downward trend of port market, the outsourcing price of large platform households has been greatly reduced, and the coal mine delivery is not smooth; the mine mouth market is weak, and the price pressure is downward, and the end-users mainly focus on rigid demand procurement. In Inner Mongolia, the price is reduced by about 10 yuan. In Shanxi, some coal mines are under great pressure to sell and actively reduce production. In Shaanxi, the coal mine inventory is high and the price is reduced by 20 CNY/ton. On April 14, five people were trapped in a roof accident in Datang Tashan Coal Mine, the same coal mine, and have been rescued. It is expected that in the future, the coal mine safety supervision in Shanxi Province and other major coal producing areas will be strengthened. In the short term, the coal supply will be affected, which will support the coal price to a certain extent.

Recently, the decline of imported coal FOB price is less than that of domestic coal. Under the condition that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar and the international sea freight have not changed much, the difference between domestic and foreign coal prices has gradually narrowed, and the advantage of imported coal price is not obvious. In addition, China's control of imported coal is tightened, the policy on imported coal tends to be strict, and some ports in the South have a long lag period, which affects the enthusiasm of the terminal and traders to purchase imported coal. This week, the bidding of some coastal power plants was released, and the market sentiment slightly improved. The number of underground anchor ships and forecast ships in Caofeidian, Jingtang Port and other ports increased slightly, and the decline of the index also narrowed. It is expected that by the end of this month, the main coal enterprises will no longer be able to deliver goods in accordance with the index, the panic selling of traders will also be reduced, and the coal price is expected to stabilize and stop falling. In the later period, the import volume will be reduced, leaving room for the development of the domestic coal market; the number of coal hauling ships from Bohai port to the port is expected to increase, the demand will pick up quickly, and the north coal South transportation will be more busy.