2020 feed market outlook: output value will exceed 720 billion

According to the announcement of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of July 1, 2020, feed production enterprises will stop producing commercial feed containing growth-promoting pharmaceutical feed additives (except traditional Chinese medicines). At present, there is only one day left before the implementation of the feed ban, under the superposition of soaring feed raw materials, many feed enterprises in Yunnan have notified the price increase by 50-100 CNY/ton.

In 2019, my country's feed output reached 261.84 million tons, a slight increase compared with 2018. In 2019, due to the decline in hog production capacity and changes in the international trade situation, the national industrial feed output value and output declined, product structure adjustments accelerated, feed additive products grew steadily, and the operating situation of large-scale enterprises was generally stable. China can be said to be a veritable feed country. The volume of the feed market is so large, and advancing the prohibition of feed can reduce the use of antibiotics in the breeding industry and help maintain the safety of animal-derived food and public health in my country.

In early 2020, the spread of China's new coronary pneumonia epidemic has led to nationwide shutdowns and production shutdowns, which has had a certain impact on the feed industry. With the gradual stabilization of the epidemic situation and the government's strong support for the development of live pig production in private enterprises, the promotion of the supply of stable pork market prices, and encouragement for other farming industries, it is expected that in 2020, the overall feed output will remain basically stable from the previous year. In the long run, in the next 10 years, the total output of industrial feed will increase steadily and the degree of product concentration will increase. In the short term, it is expected that the output of feed will be mainly stable. In the later period, the concentration of feed products will gradually increase, the proportion of compound feed will increase steadily, and the proportion of concentrated feed will further decline.

According to the 13th Five-Year Plan of the feed industry, the total output of industrial feed is expected to reach 220 million tons by 2020. Among them, according to product category, compound feed is 200 million tons, concentrated feed is 12 million tons, and additive premix feed is 8 million tons; by animal species, pig feed is 94 million tons, meat and poultry feed is 60 million tons, and egg and poultry feed is 31 million tons. , Aquatic feed 20 million tons, ruminant feed 10 million tons, pet feed 1.2 million tons, fur animals and other feed 3.8 million tons. It is worth noting that at present, my country's feed output has exceeded the 13th Five-Year Plan, and there will be a period of adjustment in the next period of time.

In 2019, the total output value of the national feed industry was 808.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.0%. Among them, the output value of feed products was 709.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%; the output value of feed additive products was 83.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%; the total operating income of feed machinery was 6.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.3% year-on-year; the operating income of pet feed products was 9.76 billion yuan. It is estimated that by the end of 2020, the output value of feed products nationwide will exceed 720 billion yuan.