Wheat Drowns in a Sea of Plenty: Global Glut Crushes Price Hopes

Global wheat markets sank deeper into a supply-induced slump during the week ending November 28, 2025, as bumper harvests from Europe to South America flooded export channels and intensified price wars. Abundant global supply and fierce export competition—led by Russia’s aggressive pricing and Argentina’s record-breaking crop—proved too much for prices to overcome, despite pockets of strong demand.

Chicago’s March soft red winter wheat closed at $5.385 per bushel, down 0.23% on the week, while Euronext’s March contract tumbled 2.1% to €188/tonne. Even Argentina’s riverplate quote slid to $208/ton, reflecting its newfound role as the world’s cheapest supplier. Only U.S. hard wheats showed modest gains, buoyed by robust export inspections—474,530 tons in one week, up 92% from the prior week—but even that couldn’t reverse the broader downtrend.

The real story lies in the fields: Argentina’s wheat output forecast jumped to a record 25.5 million metric tons, thanks to unexpectedly high yields. The EU lifted its soft wheat projection to 134.2 million tons, with ending stocks swelling to 11.5 million tons. Meanwhile, Russia continues to dominate the Black Sea, offering 12.5% protein wheat at just $228/ton FOB—a figure that undercuts European and North American rivals.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey each bought 300,000 tons, but their tenders favored Black Sea origins, underscoring a painful truth: when global supply overflows, only the cheapest survive. With U.S. winter wheat planting nearly complete and crop ratings improving, and Ukraine finishing 98% of its sowing, the stage is set for continued pressure. Unless drought or war intervenes, wheat’s rally remains a distant dream.