WTO: Global trade in goods expected to pick up partially in Q3

World Trade Organization released data on the 19th, the third quarter of global trade in goods continued to decline sharply, but global trade appeared part of the signs of recovery, recovery efforts with a high degree of uncertainty, do not rule out the future out of the L-shaped recovery trajectory.

　　WTO on the day of the release of the latest issue of the "trade in goods table" report shows that the reflection of the third quarter market of global trade in goods boom index is currently 84.5, lower than the last quarter of 87.6, is the lowest value since the introduction of the index.

　　However, while most of the components of the global trade in goods sentiment index are at historic lows, some components have shown signs of stabilization.

　　In April, the WTO predicted that global trade could shrink by a significant 13 to 32 per cent this year, with its ultimate performance depending on the duration of the epidemic and the effectiveness of anti-epidemic measures. Combined with the latest sentiment index, the WTO believes that the magnitude of this year's contraction in global trade may be closer to the 13 percent optimistic expectations.

　　The WTO also warned that previous forecasts that global trade is expected to achieve a V-shaped rebound may be too optimistic, due to the current economic and trade policies and the uncertainty of the development of the epidemic is still very high, there is a possibility that the recovery trajectory of global trade was L-shaped.

　　According to the rules for compiling the global trade in goods sentiment index, the value of 100 is its reference point. An index reading of 100 in a given quarter means that global trade in goods is growing in line with medium-term trend expectations. An index reading greater than 100 indicates that global trade in goods grew above the expected level for the quarter, while the opposite indicates that global trade in goods grew below the expected level.

　　The Global Trade Sentiment Index, first released by WTO in July 2016, provides early signals on the short-term direction of current world trade by capturing trade statistics from major economies to provide more timely information on international trade for trade policymakers and the business community.