After breaking through the consolidation period, the aniline market rose rapidly

Looking back at the market in 2019, the upward channel was also opened in September. In 2020, due to special events, the market in the first half of the year basically showed a downward trend. The fundamentals of supply and demand were weak, and aniline prices and profits were not optimistic. But judging from the market in the second half of the year, the market performance was roughly similar to that of the same period last year. It started to rise in September 2020. When will the rise last? It is also the focus of current industry insiders.

The Aniline market began to rise in September and the price is similar to the same period last year. Taking the North China market as an example, by comparing the market with the same period last year, it can be seen that the current round of aniline rise has not reached the same period of last year in terms of time and increase. Whether the rise will be the same as the same period last year, we need to analyze some factors affecting prices.

The main reason for the rise in the Aniline market in 2019 is the rise in raw materials and the decrease in supply. On the one hand, in September 2019, the price of Nitric Acid, a raw material for aniline, saw a large increase. In just one September, the price of 98% concentrated nitric acid in Anhui rose from 1,600 CNY/ton to 2,650 CNY/ton, an increase of 66%. Calculated based on the unit consumption ratio of aniline to nitric acid of 0.74, the cost of aniline has risen by 777 CNY/ton, which has largely supported the price increase of aniline. On the other hand, domestic aniline factories are expected to concentrate on overhauls and domestic supply will decrease, which will further boost the price of aniline.

Analyze the status quo

The main reason for this wave of market rise in 2020 is the decrease in spot supply. The raw material end pure benzene market was narrowed in the third quarter. Although the price of nitric acid rose in September, the increase was small, and the support for the cost of aniline was limited. The fuse of this round of market rise is Wanhua's reduction of aniline spot export. The MDI market is booming and the profits are relatively good. The attractiveness of aniline to the production of enterprises is relatively low. The decrease in the spot market has prompted other export aniline manufacturers to actively adjust the increase. In the first half of 2020, other downstream demand for aniline will be weak. The demand has increased driven by the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" and price increases, and the centralized maintenance plan of aniline companies has further improved the market mentality. , Aniline companies with poor long-term benefits actively seize the opportunity to rise to help the promotion of the situation continue to rise.

From the perspective of the enterprise, according to the latest purchase raw material prices, the profit of the aniline enterprise is already around 1,500 CNY/ton; with the support of good profits, the enthusiasm of the production of the enterprise is high, and it is concerned whether the maintenance plan of the enterprise will be carried out as scheduled. According to the current market situation, the spot supply of aniline is tight, and corporate inventories are low, and prices may rise further. The rise is likely to continue until the end of October. But what will happen after this round of market gains? Since the price of aniline and the price of raw material pure benzene are quite different at present, can high-profit production be maintained?

Generally, the supply is expected to increase after the profit increases. The first consideration is the restart of the maintenance company, and the second is the increase in the enthusiasm of the newly put into production before the end of the year; when the supply increases, the price is at risk of falling, because demand enters the winter There are weakening expectations. Therefore, it is necessary to be wary of the risk of price fall after a wide-ranging market.