Raw material prices continue to rise, and the phosphoric acid market is rising

1. Price Trend　

According to the business agency's bulk data list, the average domestic Phosphoric Acid price was 4950 CNY/ton on October 19, up 1.71% from last Monday, up 2.06% from the previous month, down 7.48% from the beginning of the year, and down 7.76% from the same period last year.

2. Market analysis

Entering October, the Phosphoric Acid market has been running steadily, and there are not many replenishment orders after the holiday. Recently, driven by the upward trend of raw material yellow Phosphorus, the price of phosphoric acid has risen closely. Some companies have raised 100-150 CNY/ton. For example, the price has been raised by 150 yuan and now it has risen to 5,000 CNY/ton. Some companies have stabilized prices and watched the market. As yellow phosphorus enters the dry season, electricity prices in Yunnan and Sichuan have been adjusted upwards. The production costs of yellow phosphorus enterprises have increased, and prices have continued to rise, which is transmitted to the phosphoric acid market and fluctuates. However, the current demand has not seen a significant increase, the downstream inquiries are not hot, and the market transaction atmosphere is not tepid. Therefore, despite the support of the cost side, the phosphoric acid market is unlikely to have significant upside.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of October 19, the average market price of 85% of industrial water purification phosphoric acid was about 4950 CNY/ton, the quotation in Sichuan was 4700-5400 CNY/ton, the price increased, and the quotation in Guangxi was about 4800 CNY/ton. , Rising steadily; the quotation in Yunnan is around 4800 CNY/ton, and trading is stable; the quotation in Beijing is around 4700 CNY/ton, and the price is temporarily stable; the quotation in Hubei is around 4800-5000 CNY/ton, and the price is rising; Tianjin area The quotation is around 5500 CNY/ton, which is temporarily stable and wait-and-see; the quotation in Jiangsu area is around 4550-4600 CNY/ton, steadily rising. Prices have risen steadily everywhere.

The phosphoric acid industry chain rose more and fell less. On October 19, the phosphoric acid industry chain index was 89.04, an increase of 0.59 points from yesterday, and a decrease of 16.20% from the highest point in the cycle of 106.25 points (2012-03-22), compared with July 2019 The lowest point on the 02nd was 77.60 points, an increase of 14.74%. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 till now)

Yellow phosphorus, the internal yellow phosphorus market is trending upward as a whole, and the spot sales in the market are basically normal. The Yunnan area has increased rapidly, the price in Sichuan has also increased, and the price in Guizhou is relatively stable. Traders are more cautious in obtaining goods, and downstream purchases are mainly on-demand. Electricity prices in Yunnan and Sichuan have been raised in November, and production costs of yellow phosphorus companies have increased. Currently, yellow phosphorus companies have gradually raised their quotations, with reference prices of 16,000-16200 CNY/ton.

Phosphate rock enters October. After the double festival, domestic phosphate rock has gradually resumed, and trading on the market has been stable. It is heard that some mining companies may intend to raise their quotations. New orders are sold at sporadic high prices, and the market is mostly wait and see. At present, after the high-end quotation of the phosphate rock market, the trading is still acceptable, and the just-needed purchases are the main ones. The reference price is 386.67, which is an increase of 2.65% compared with October 1 (376.67).

Sulfuric acid, the sulfuric acid market in Shandong may fluctuate mainly in late October. The upstream sulphur price has risen slightly recently, and the downward trend is consolidating at a high level. The downstream demand for sulphuric acid is more enthusiasm, and the product trend is going up due to the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulphuric acid analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short-term Shandong market, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the sulphuric acid market may rise slightly.

Downstream ammonium phosphate, the current price of monoammonium raw materials is rising, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the transaction center is rising. It is expected that monoammonium will rise steadily in the short term. The quotation of diammonium continues to be firm, the domestic market is stable, and the international market demand is good. Diammonium is expected to continue its upward momentum in the short term.

3. Market outlook forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst of the Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the price of phosphoric acid has been rising recently, driven by the upward trend of raw material yellow phosphorus, but the current demand has not seen a significant increase, the downstream inquiries are not hot, and the market transaction atmosphere is not tepid. Supported by the cost side, it is difficult for the phosphoric acid market to have a substantial upside.