World Cotton Ending Stocks in 2018-19 to Drop 6%

Global cotton stocks are forecast to decrease following last season’s relatively small increase, according to the latest US department of agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2018-19. World ending stocks are projected at 83.0 million bales for 2018-19, nearly six per cent (5.2 million bales) below 2017-18 and the lowest since 2011-12.

Global cotton stocks totalled a record 110.8 million bales at the conclusion of 2014-15, with China holding 60 per cent of the total, as Government policies there resulted in unusually large stocks in their national reserve. Subsequently, however, policies were implemented in China to reduce surplus stocks, resulting in lower world stocks.

For 2017-18, cotton stocks in China are forecast lower at 41.2 million bales, while stocks outside of China are expected to increase 22 per cent to 47.0 million bales, the Economic Research Service of USDA said in its latest ‘Cotton and Wool Outlook’ report.

For 2018-19, stocks in China are projected to decline further to 33.1 million bales—40 per cent of the global total—while stocks outside of China are forecast to approach a record 50 million bales. However, as a share of world mill use, stocks outside of China are expected to rise only slightly in 2018-19.