2020 PC market summary and outlook

In 2020, in an environment where the global epidemic is changing, the performance of the plastic industry chain will also have its own merits. Among them, bisphenol A is operating at a high level and is profitable, while its end consumer product PC seems to be back and forth, but it is actually bitter. This year's fierce game and struggle to survive, let the editor interpret them one by one.

　　Q1: Under the epidemic, weeping everywhere

At the beginning of 2020, a tiny COVID-19 virus was scattered on the land of China. In just two months, it expanded, fissioned, replicated, and spread infinitely, and finally broke into ours with an invincible posture and a mighty momentum. Life has developed into a disaster that ravages the world. Under the impact of the epidemic, international crude oil experienced an epic crash. The closing price of WTI once reached $31.13/barrel; the closing price of Brent once reached $34.36/barrel, and even fell to a negative value during the session. Seeing this string of numbers, one can still feel the tragic past. Similar to international crude oil, there is also PC upstream monomer bisphenol A. If the price of oil is a historic drop, then BPA is a cliff diving. At the beginning of the year, the quotation of BPA in East China was still 10,800-10,900 CNY/ton, but by the end of the first quarter, the market reference price was only 9,100 CNY/ton, which was 15.7% in the first quarter. The continuous bottoming of the raw material bisphenol A, the long-term downturn in superimposed demand, and the pressure brought by the virus on the economy have caused the market to plummet throughout the first quarter.

　　 Second quarter: a short counterattack led by a helmet

　　 Entering the second quarter, with the concerted efforts of medical staff and the people across the country, the epidemic has finally been effectively controlled, and all walks of life have entered the stage of resumption of work and production in an orderly manner. PC also began to counterattack after the May Day holiday. There are two motivations. First, starting in May, the peak season for bisphenol A market maintenance is coming, and the supply of goods on the market continues to be tight. In just one month, the increase was as high as 26.7% to about 12,600 CNY/ton. Second, the "one helmet and one area" requirement document issued by the public security department has led to a rapid increase in the demand for helmets. Although it is irrational and not long-lasting, it has undoubtedly ignited the flames of the raw material market. Although the PC's share of electric vehicle helmets is not too large, driven by business speculation, PC also ushered in a wave of small peaks.

　　 The third quarter: the ups and downs mixed with thousands of dawn

The impact of the “helmet fever” lasted until the third quarter, but the fall in the price of BPA in mid-July disrupted the plan to soar the market. In addition, the supply has increased and the demand has been exhausted, causing PCs to have to Dormant down the channel again. Until August, the upstream raw materials fell in price, although the strength was not great, it obviously played a good role in the long-weak market. In addition, the production and sales of automobiles and home appliances in the main downstream industries have both created new highs, which also provided a good driving effect on the market.

　　 Fourth quarter: The upside is like a rainbow, but it is difficult to conceal the bitterness of the upside-down

　　 The exaggerated growth rate of bisphenol A and non-phosgene raw material DMC has brought more than motivation to the PC industry, but also unlimited pressure. The loss in September rapidly expanded to 1,780 CNY/ton, basically hitting the highest level of the year. In desperation, in October, PC companies began to concentrate their prices to match the upstream, and the market prices also rose accordingly. As of the end of November, some brands had increased by as much as 1,000 yuan. However, there is no sign of stagnation in BPA. The price war is on the verge of triggering another wave of qualitative jumps in prices that month. Especially at the end of November, BPA almost rose to the point of selflessness. The price once touched 20,000 CNY/ton, but the downstream market Affected by the transaction, instead of going out of a polarized situation, after a long price war with the upstream, PC gradually became tired, and the price first appeared to decline. Some brands fell by thousands of yuan. Seeing that PC is incapable, neither BPA nor BPA No matter how hard it was, the PC fell back in one step, but not only did it fail to relieve the PC’s urgent need, but it also caused its cost to plummet. The deep fall in December is also reasonable.

　　 Summary: 2020 has been brilliant and hard for PC. I still have some expectations for the upcoming 2021, but the bumps in the road ahead can't help but make my vision of the PC greatly reduced.

The planned production capacity in 2021 will reach as much as 880,000 tons. Although there is a significant reduction compared with 2020, the capacity of the equipment put into production at the end of the year will not be fully released until the beginning of the next year. In addition, the downstream behavior of resisting high prices makes PCs return to Contradictory situation. All in all, 2021 is a long way to go for PC!