36% evaporation in 30 days! BPA plunges

When I saw BPA at the beginning of last month, he was still alive as a nouveau riche. The high level of 20,000 CNY/ton was unprecedented. It not only fully filled his profit margin, but also forced downstream polycarbonate. (PC) Glittering teeth and rising, this kind of performance can be regarded as the only one among the plastic materials in 2020. I don’t want to see it again in 30 days. Although other factories except Lihua Yiwei have all suspended their offers and tried to create a tight atmosphere in an attempt to support market confidence, they still can’t stop him from gaining value. 36% has evaporated in just one month. At the end of December, the price in East China and North China was RMB 12,700 per ton, and there is still room for negotiation. I'm afraid I didn't expect bisphenol A. After the sweetness in my heart and spleen, the aftertaste is all bitter.

If it weren't for upstream raw materials to stem from it, the pace of bisphenol A's fall would not be so fast. Regarding phenol, after the arrival of imported cargoes, the port’s inventory reached more than 20,000 tons, and the supply was quite abundant. Although the holders were under pressure and there were low output operations, but the terminal participation was still not good, and the shipment was not smooth. Under the circumstances, the price center of gravity is difficult to control and keeps loose. In terms of acetone, the start of the downstream sector has declined, especially the acetone-based isopropanol industry has avoided losses and stopped. MIBK has reduced its load due to catalyst problems. In addition, petrochemical companies have continuously adjusted and declined. Ningbo Taihua's plant has resumed and restarted. Concerned about the increase in subsequent supply, the market panic is permeated. The state of imbalance between supply and demand has appeared, the mentality of the industry has collapsed, and low-price bids have no bottom line, causing prices to lose power and fall.

At present, the downstream products of bisphenol A are mainly composed of epoxy resin and PC, which account for about 60% and 40% respectively. From October to November, the price tug-of-war between bisphenol A and the terminal started, and it once evolved to the point where it was almost irrational. Although this blind competition was short-lived and buried huge risks, things have two sides. , Can also be explained as a mutually beneficial stimulus. First, epoxy resin and PC drive raw materials to increase, and then the supply of bisphenol A enters a tense situation. The severe short supply urges the price to rise further, and finally forces downstream to catch up. After entering December, the pains left by disorder began to appear. Regarding epoxy resin, the favorable policy support was lost, and the liquid resin plummeted from a price of nearly 30,000 CNY/ton to around 21,500 CNY/ton today. The decline in prices and the strong bearish sentiment in the market gradually swallowed the hope of a market rebound; on the PC side, in order to avoid losses and gain profits in the early stage, excessive market speculation pushed the price to "abnormal", and the latter returned after the decline in trading. "Normal" is also reasonable.

Summary: At this stage, the price of BPA is almost the same as at the end of October 2020. It is true that the rapid adjustment in place will inevitably be too ups and downs, but it is not a bad thing for the development of the entire industry chain. Only after experiencing uproar and precipitation can we see the way forward and ride the waves.