1 Bisphenol A: an important intermediate product in the phenol ketone industry chain
Bisphenol A (BPA) is an important organic chemical raw material and an important derivative of phenol and acetone. It is mainly used to produce polycarbonate, epoxy resin, polysulfone resin, polyphenylene ether resin and other polymer materials. In the future, with the addition of large-scale refining and chemical integration enterprises, the industry concentration will continue to rise. It is expected that the commercialization rate of bisphenol A will gradually decrease in the future, and the trend of cost competition in the industry will become more obvious.
2 Supply: a substantial expansion will begin in 2022
There are currently 10 domestic bisphenol A manufacturers with a total production capacity of 2.215 million tons. From 2015 to 2021, China's bisphenol A output continued to grow, and the development was relatively stable. After 2019, bisphenol A has entered a new round of production cycle, especially since 2021, new devices represented by Zhongsha Tianjin will be completed and put into production one after another. It is expected that starting from 2022, the production capacity of bisphenol A will increase significantly in the future.
3 Demand: PC and epoxy resin drive demand greatly increased
The downstream demand structure of bisphenol A is concentrated, and it is mainly used for PC and epoxy resin, accounting for almost half of the proportion. In recent years, the demand for bisphenol A has almost remained stable, mainly due to the insufficient operating rate of downstream PC and epoxy resin companies under the epidemic situation, and the progress of new production capacity in the industry has been delayed to a certain extent, resulting in low demand for bisphenol A As expected. In 2021, the apparent consumption of BPA is expected to be around 2.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%. In the future, with the successive commissioning of new downstream PC and epoxy resin equipment, the demand for bisphenol A is expected to increase substantially.
4 Profit: BPA is in a high economic cycle
Starting from the second half of 2020, BPA has entered a profitable business cycle. In 2021, due to the increase in orders for downstream epoxy resins due to the increased demand for electronics and coatings, the market price of bisphenol A continues to rise due to the increase in demand, continuously setting new highs in the past ten years, the highest price appeared in mid-April, and the mainstream market price pushed up To 29,900 yuan/ton, which is close to the 30,000 mark. After that, BPA once again ushered in a bull market in the third quarter. As some domestic devices entered the maintenance season, the market supply decreased and the price of BPA rose again. However, with the introduction of the “dual control of energy consumption” policy, downstream epoxy resins have been limited in operation and terminal demand has fallen. Starting in October, the price of bisphenol A has also experienced a sharp correction, but the overall price and profit level are still at historical highs.
5 Supply and demand forecast
According to the supply-demand balance sheet, it is estimated that from 21-23 years, the apparent consumption of bisphenol A will reach 223/302/4.16 million tons, and the output will reach 173/234/332 million tons. There is a relatively obvious gap between supply and demand. We predict that the supply and demand pattern of BPA will be in short supply in the future. Driven by the demand for downstream epoxy resin and PC, it is expected that the price and profit level of BPA will remain high in the future.
We judge that BPA will still be in a high business cycle in the future, and the profit level of related companies will still be considerable.
Risk warning: The production progress of downstream PC and epoxy resin is not up to expectations; the price of raw materials has risen sharply; the competition in the bisphenol A market has intensified; the impact of overseas installations, etc.
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