On the 12th, most domestic futures markets fell in early trading, with non-ferrous and black products leading the decline. Stainless steel and coke fell by more than 3%, hot coil, thread, coking coal, Shanghai nickel, and Shanghai aluminum fell by more than 2%; most energy and chemical products fell, rubber , Asphalt fell nearly 3%, oils and fats all fell, soybean oil, palm oil fell more than 2%. Many chemical raw materials have also fallen into a "downtrend" in the beginning of 2021.
Isopropanol fell by 26.59%, increasing inventory and factories under pressure
On the 11th, isobutyraldehyde was quoted at RMB 6,350/ton, a decrease of RMB 2,300/ton from the price at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 26.59%. At the end of last year, isobutyraldehyde was quoted at RMB 11,000 per ton, a 7-year high, and the current quotation has fallen 42.27% from its higher point. The downstream consumption of isobutyraldehyde decreased in inventory and demand, resulting in an increase in inventory after the isobutyraldehyde factory delivered the pre-orders. The main factories were under pressure and prices began to go down. The upstream propylene fell by 1.13% from the beginning of the month, the end demand performance was average, the downstream factories were more cautious in purchasing raw materials, and the market negotiation atmosphere was general.
Butanol fell by 20.50%, and the downstream has serious resistance to high-priced goods
On the 11th, the price of n-butanol was 7366.67 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1,900 CNY/ton from the price at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 20.50%. The North China region of Wanhua Chemical's n-butanol dropped by RMB 1,400/ton from the beginning of the month, and the area of East China and South China dropped by RMB 1,500/ton from the beginning of the month. The upstream propylene market fell, down 1.13% from the beginning of the month, which had a negative impact on n-butanol. As the Spring Festival approaches, coupled with the continuous suspension of logistics, although the downstream has a stocking plan, there is always a resistance to high prices. Therefore, the domestic n-butanol market is difficult to rebound in the short term.
Neopentyl glycol fell 15.02%, the downstream demand was not large, and the inventory accumulated
On the 11th, neopentyl glycol was quoted at RMB 10,750/ton, a decrease of RMB 1,900/ton from the price at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 15.02%. Wanhua Chemical’s quotations of neopentyl glycol in North China, East China and South China were all lowered by RMB 1,000/ton from the beginning of the month. Upstream isobutyraldehyde fell by 26.59%, which was a negative cost; the downstream coatings industry was in the off-season, and the stocking demand was not large before and the inventory accumulated. Part of the neopentyl glycol plants that are externally sourced have entered the stage of consuming isobutyraldehyde inventory to reduce the cost pressure and risks caused by the later production of high-cost sources. It is expected that the price of neopentyl glycol can be reduced to about 10,000 CNY/ton in the short term.
Acetone fell by 14.62%, demand fell due to the epidemic
On the 11th, acetone was quoted at RMB 5,500/ton, a decrease of RMB 950/ton from the price at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 14.62%. Upstream pure benzene fell by 4.88% from the beginning of the month. Environmental inspections in the north have gradually become stricter. Logistics has also become more tightly affected by the epidemic. It is expected that the purchase of pure benzene will be hit hard and prices will continue to fall. In the downstream market, on the one hand, the bisphenol A market has fallen sharply. On the other hand, the operating rate of downstream MMA and MIBK factories has declined. Under the current situation, coupled with the weather, many factories have closed early, and some factories have reduced operating rates due to environmental reasons. , The decline in the purchase demand of the terminal factory, the market demand for raw materials, and then decline.
Isopropanol fell by 10.33%, the upstream center of gravity fell, or prices will continue to fall
On the 11th, isopropanol was quoted at RMB 7,233.33/ton, a decrease of RMB 833.34/ton from the price at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 10.33%. In terms of raw materials, the center of gravity of the East China acetone market fell sharply this week, and the offer fell 14.62% from the beginning of the month. The downward cost of the isopropanol downstream market has suppressed the mentality. The downstream orders are cautious and the buying enthusiasm is limited. The isopropanol market is weakly adjusted downwards, the downstream is mainly waiting and watching, and the shipments of holders are soft. In the short term, there is still room for price cuts in the isopropanol market.
Octanol fell by 10.14%, the upstream was negative, and purchasing enthusiasm weakened
On the 11th, octanol was quoted at RMB 10,633.33/ton, a decrease of RMB 1,200/ton from the price at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 10.14%. The upstream raw material propylene market fell, down 1.13% from the beginning of the month, which was affected by supply and demand, which had a negative impact on the price of octanol. Downstream customers are less enthusiastic about purchasing octanol, and demand for octanol is average.
acetic acid is lowered by 9.54% due to the continued decline in inventory
On the 11th, acetic acid was quoted at RMB 3,950/ton, a decrease of RMB 416.67/ton from the price at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 9.54%. After New Year's Day, the domestic acetic acid market continued to fall. Due to the weak overall demand in the downstream market and the continuous accumulation of acetic acid market inventories, companies continued to lower their quotations under pressure from the stock market. However, there were many sporadic small orders in the downstream market, coupled with the recent rebound of the epidemic in North China, the market was cautious in purchasing, and the downward trend in the market was difficult to alleviate.
Caprolactam fell by 9.36%, the epidemic affected logistics and continued to decline
On the 11th, caprolactam was quoted at RMB 10,650/ton, a decrease of RMB 1,100/ton from the price at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 9.36%. The overhaul equipment restarted at the end of last year, and the effect of increased supply of goods began to appear in the second half of last year, and the price gradually fell. Upstream pure benzene fell by 4.88% from the beginning of the month. Environmental inspections in the north have gradually become stricter. Logistics has also become more tightly affected by the epidemic. It is expected that the purchase of pure benzene will be hit hard and prices will continue to fall.
Epoxy resin fell 8.39%, orders dropped sharply, price cuts to compete for the market
On the 11th, the negotiated price of East China liquid resin was around 21,300 CNY/ton (barreled factory), a decrease of 1,700 CNY/ton from the beginning of the month, a decrease of 7.39%. The negotiated price of solid epoxy resin is around 17,300 CNY/ton (delivered upon acceptance), a decrease of 1,700 CNY/ton from the beginning of the month, a drop of 8.95%. Due to the wide decline in upstream bisphenol A, epoxy resin has lost cost support, and new orders from manufacturers have shrunk sharply. In order to seize market share, some resin factories in East China have continuously lowered their ex-factory prices, mainly receiving orders at low prices. Epoxy is expected to be in the short term. The resin is still mainly running in low position.
DOP fell by 7%, the epidemic affected transportation and downstream loads increased
On the 11th, DOP quoted a price of 9625 CNY/ton, down 725 CNY/ton from the price at the beginning of the month, or 7%. Since the beginning of the year, the price of octanol in the upstream has fallen rapidly, and phthalic anhydride has also fallen, down 3.03% from the beginning of the month. The downward pressure on DOP has been highlighted. In terms of downstream PVC, the weather turns cold and the Spring Festival is approaching, downstream demand is in a seasonally weakening stage, transportation control and downstream load reduction phenomena are increasing. At present, most companies have limited stocks, mainly on-demand procurement, and overall trading is average.
Butanone fell by 6%, procurement ended, demand cut
On the 11th, butanone was quoted at RMB 7,050/ton, a decrease of RMB 450/ton from the price at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 6%. After the New Year’s Day holiday, the trading atmosphere in the butanone market did not improve. Phased purchases ended, and the secondary market shipments began to slow down. New orders for butanone were rare. In addition, the downstream terminal manufacturing operating rate of butanone continued to decline, and demand was in the festival. After continuous reduction, the market offer price of butanone began to loosen.
Ethyl acetate fell 5.12%, mainly market contracts
On the 11th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6712.5 CNY/ton, down 362.5 CNY/ton from the price at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 5.12%. In addition, the price of raw material acetic acid continues to decline, and the cost-side support is no longer good, which intensifies the bearish atmosphere in the market. The downstream market is mostly based on digesting early-stage contracts, and has obvious conflicts with the high price of acetic acid. At present, domestic ethyl acetate companies have poor shipments. In order to prevent excessive market pressure from being forced to lower prices for shipments, the recent decline in Acetic acid prices has led to the cost side Insufficient support, the industry's bearish sentiment is obvious, and the ethyl acetate market is expected to operate weakly in a short time.
Butadiene fell 4.49%, supply increased, and the market fell
On the 11th, butadiene was quoted at 7403.33 CNY/ton, a decrease of 347.78 CNY/ton from the price at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 4.49%. With the gradual release of output after the restart of some domestic devices, the market supply has increased significantly. After the holiday, the butadiene market has been weakened and the market has declined significantly due to the supply side drag. Looking at the market outlook, under the expectation of the release of production of some domestic devices and the restart of South Korean devices, merchants have a negative expectation on the supply of the butadiene market in the later period. The continued decline in the market has caused downstream wait-and-see declines, and the short-term domestic butadiene market is difficult to decline. There are changes.
Bisphenol A fell by 2.46%, and both upstream and downstream markets declined
On the 11th, bisphenol A was quoted at RMB 12,900/ton, a decrease of RMB 325/ton from the price at the beginning of the month, a drop of 2.46%. In terms of raw materials, the stalemate in the phenol market is difficult to change, down 4.28% from the beginning of the month, and there is no pressure on the supply side. Acetone continued to fall, down 14.62% from the beginning of the month. At present, both the upstream and downstream markets are in a downward trend, which has a negative impact on BPA. Active offers in the BPA market were limited, and sporadic transactions were dominated by just-needed orders falling, and under the substantial profit margins of holders, BPA continued to fall.
Wanhua Chemical cuts RMB 4500/ton, polymer MDI price cuts 2.34%
On the 11th, the price of polymeric MDI was 17,700 CNY/ton, down by 425 CNY/ton from the price at the beginning of the month, or 2.34%. Wanhua Chemical’s latest MDI quotation for January 2021 has shown that the prices of various products have been significantly reduced. Starting from January 2021, the listing price of Wanhua Chemical’s China regional polymer MDI distribution market is 20,500 CNY/ton (down 4,500 CNY/ton from the December 2020 price), and the direct market listing price is 20,500 CNY/ton (compared to the December 2020 price Lower 4500 CNY/ton). In terms of raw materials, pure benzene fell 4.88%. The lack of confidence of traders tends to be pessimistic about the market outlook, domestic aggregate MDI offers are dropping in a narrow range, and the market is in a downturn.
Environmental protection is becoming stricter, logistics is hindered, and demand for chemicals is generally weak
There is still a month or so before the Spring Festival, but under the special circumstances of this year, in order to control the epidemic, many places advocate "Chinese New Year in situ", and high-speed transportation and logistics in some areas are under control. The cold weather and snowfall also caused some road sections to be blocked, affecting the flow of goods in parts of Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Shanxi. The focus of everyone is generally on epidemic prevention. Downstream clothing, knitting, foreign trade and other companies have already started their holidays, or are planning holidays in a few days Matters. Superimposed on the northern heating season, environmental protection and emission reduction are strictly controlled, and the operating rate of factories has generally declined. The beginning of the year has not always been the peak season for the chemical industry. After the downstream market enters the off-season, the demand for raw materials has been weak, and after the companies that have been temporarily shut down for maintenance and repairs resume production, the oversupply situation in the market will continue to intensify and it is difficult to effectively alleviate it in a short time. Industry insiders predict that some chemical raw materials will continue to decline or stabilize in the near future, and there is little room for growth.
