Urea has soared by RMB 500/ton. How long will it take to increase this time?

Recently, due to multiple force majeure factors, fertilizer prices have shown an upward trend. The relevant person told reporters that the price increase is mainly due to the superposition of multiple factors such as international market conditions, environmental protection production restrictions, raw material prices, and epidemics. The reporter reported that the current international demand for nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, potash fertilizer and other fertilizers is large, mainly due to the local epidemic, the low operating rate of enterprises and to avoid shortage of goods during the farming period.

Comparing the data, we found that the domestic Urea price has risen a lot

In October 2020, the market price of urea will be around 1480 CNY/ton; in November, the price will be around 1780 CNY/ton; in December, the price will be around 1850 CNY/ton; in January 2021, the price will be around 1980 yuan. In 4 months, the increase of urea per ton is about 500 yuan. It's really fierce! In addition, the price increase of diammonium is about 350 CNY/ton. The price of 40% chlorine-based compound fertilizer rose from 1,720 CNY/ton in October last year to the current 1,900 CNY/ton, an increase of nearly 200 CNY/ton.

Today, the mainstream domestic urea prices are stable, and the prices in some areas have risen slightly due to export orders. At present, the overall market atmosphere is becoming stalemate, the mentality of both the supply and demand sides is unstable, the downstream enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high, the performance of new orders from urea manufacturers is flat, and most manufacturers have relatively sufficient pre-accepted orders. In terms of demand, locally affected by air pollution control, sheet metal companies have suspended operations, compound fertilizer companies have low operating load, industrial demand has gradually decreased, and agriculture is mainly engaged in appropriate purchases on dips. On the supply side, production of early-stage overhaul devices has resumed one after another recently, and Nissan is slowly increasing. The domestic urea market is expected to fluctuate steadily and slightly in the short term, and manufacturers can adjust their quotations flexibly according to their own conditions.

In terms of futures: the opening price of the urea contract (UR2105) on January 25 was 1948 yuan, and the closing price was 1991 yuan, an increase of 24 yuan from the previous trading day, the increase/decrease rate was (1.63)%, and the settlement price was 1966 yuan. The volume was 121,385 hands, and the position was 91,753 hands. The opening price of the main urea contract (UR2105) on January 26 was 1994 yuan.

Today, the mainstream ex-factory price of small granular urea in Shandong area: Rising Chemical's offer is 2,000 CNY/ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable; Mingshui Chemical's quotation is 2,000 CNY/ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable; Yangmei Plain offers 2020 CNY/ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable.