August 19 news
I. Price Trends
According to the commodity market analysis system: On August 19, 2026, the average price of quasi-first grade metallurgical coke was 1,868 CNY per ton. Starting from August 18, coking enterprises in multiple regions of Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia jointly initiated the first round of price increases (wet quenching +50 CNY/ton, dry quenching +55 CNY/ton), with the implementation window set for midnight on August 20. The expectation for the price increase is strong, but it has not been fully confirmed, and the negotiation between steel and coke industries has entered a critical period.
2. Market Analysis
Market Trading: Price Increase Announcement: Starting from August 18, coking enterprises in multiple regions of Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia jointly initiated the first round of price increases (wet quenching +50 CNY/ton, dry quenching +55 CNY/ton), with the implementation scheduled for midnight on August 20. The expectation for the increase is strong but not yet fully confirmed, as the negotiation between steel and coke industries enters a critical phase.
Cost Perspective: Supply of coking coal remains tight. In Shanxi, the resumption of production at coal mines that had previously halted operations has been slow—of the 192 mines that had shut down, 72 remain offline. Yuyang coal preparation plants are temporarily closed for inspection and troubleshooting, while customs clearance of Mongolian coal has been fluctuating. Low-sulfur prime coking coal is experiencing structural shortages, and Mysteel’s coking coal index stands at around 1,813 CNY per ton, up 26.6 yuan from the previous week. In Linfen, the price of low-sulfur prime coking coal has reached a year-to-date high of 2,070 CNY per ton. Profit margins for coke producers: The average profit per ton of coke produced by independent coking enterprises nationwide is -110 CNY/ton (-113 CNY/ton in Shanxi, -125 CNY/ton in Inner Mongolia, and -67 CNY/ton in Hebei). Some enterprises are even suffering losses as high as 150 CNY per ton. The coking coal segment is absorbing most of the industry’s profits, providing strong cost-based support for the bottom of the coke price range, yet this cost pressure is failing to translate smoothly into higher coke prices.
Steel demand: Pig iron: The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills in China is 2.382 million tons, an increase of 0.0017 million tons week-on-week. Blast furnaces that were previously under maintenance have gradually resumed production, and the rigid demand has marginally improved compared to the previous low point. However, it is still about 0.0246 million tons lower year-on-year. The profit margin of 247 steel mills is approximately 32%–33.77%, with some operating at a loss or barely breaking even. There is strong resistance to further increases in raw material prices. The coke inventory in steel mills is 0.65192 million tons (a decrease of 0.00525 million tons week-on-week), which is maintained at a medium to low level. Mills are purchasing on a need basis and have no intention of actively replenishing inventory.
III. Future Market Forecast
Coke analysts believe: Short term (1-2 weeks): The probability of the first round of price increases by 50-55 CNY/ton being implemented on August 20 is relatively high — coke producers' losses and the increase in coal prices have already exceeded the room for steel mills to lower prices. However, the second round of price increases will be capped by the steel mills' profit margin of 33%; if there is no substantial increase in finished steel products in September, the second round is unlikely to exceed 50 CNY/ton. Spot prices for first-grade dry quenched coke at ports are expected to be in the range of 1910-2020 CNY/ton, with ex-factory prices in Lüliang at 1795-1860 CNY/ton, showing a strong trend. Futures prices around 1950 CNY/ton are affected by the basis and delivery disturbances, and it is not advisable to chase higher prices.
