2021: China's foreign trade growth rate shows a trend of high and low

In 2020, facing the complex and severe domestic and foreign situation and the severe impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, China's foreign trade has overcome difficulties and achieved contrarian growth, and the scale of foreign trade has reached a record high, becoming the only major economy in the world to achieve positive growth in goods trade. The status of a major trading country has been further consolidated.

In 2021, there is still great uncertainty in the development and changes of the global epidemic, and the world economic situation is still not optimistic. my country’s foreign trade development still faces many difficulties, but opportunities and challenges coexist. With the accelerated formation of the new development pattern and the continuous high-level opening up Advance, the annual import and export scale is expected to maintain growth, and the high-quality development of foreign trade will reach a new level.

01

The impact of the international environment on foreign trade

From the perspective of the international environment, with the widespread vaccination of the new crown pneumonia vaccine, the global epidemic in 2021 is expected to be gradually brought under control and promote the recovery of the world economy. However, the evolution of the epidemic is still uncertain and the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid. The external environment is still complicated and severe. From the perspective of the domestic environment, with the steady progress of the "six stability" and "six guarantees" work, my country's economy is expected to achieve relatively rapid growth in 2021, which is positive for the continued growth of foreign trade.

　　
There are still great uncertainties in the global economic recovery. According to data from the World Health Organization, more than 40 countries have already begun to vaccinate the new crown vaccine, and the global epidemic is expected to be gradually brought under control and promote the recovery of the world economy. Judging from the statements issued by major central banks at year-end meetings, this year's global monetary policy will continue to maintain an ultra-loose tone to hedge the downward pressure on the economy. The latest forecast by the International Monetary Fund is that the global economic growth rate will rebound to 5.2% in 2021. However, it should also be noted that there is still great uncertainty in the future trend of the global epidemic. In particular, the emergence and spread of multiple mutant viruses has made the situation of epidemic prevention and control more severe. At present, the epidemic has rebounded in many countries, which has increased the global economy again. Risk of falling into recession. The latest WTO forecast shows that world trade in goods will increase by 7.2% in 2021, a sharp drop from previous expectations.

　　
The global industrial chain supply chain is accelerating the adjustment. The outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought unprecedented attention to the safety of the industrial chain supply chain. The global industrial chain supply chain established on the principle of efficiency first in the past exposed serious security risks in this emergency and strengthened the independence of the industrial chain supply chain. Controllability and reducing dependence on the outside have become the consensus of most economies. Some developed countries have begun to rebuild their own manufacturing industries, calling on companies to relocate. With the gradual recovery of production capacity in major economies, on the one hand, orders transferred due to the epidemic may gradually return. On the other hand, the accelerated adjustment of the global industrial chain supply chain will further affect the international industrial division of labor and the pattern of trade and investment.

Global debt risks should not be underestimated. In response to the severe impact of the epidemic on the economy, the unconventional economic stimulus policies have caused the fiscal deficit rate of many governments to soar, and the global debt level has increased significantly. The debt risk that has existed before the epidemic has accelerated because of the epidemic. As of the end of 2020, the total US Treasury debt has exceeded US$27 trillion, accounting for about 130% of its GDP, and the US fiscal deficit accounts for more than 15% of GDP. The debt levels of Japan, South Korea, and the Eurozone are equally worrying. The latest report of the International Finance Association (IIF) shows that in 2020, global debt has increased by 17 trillion US dollars, reaching 275 trillion US dollars, a record high. In particular, the proportion of global government debt in GDP has risen from 90% in 2019 to 2020 Nearly 105% of the year. The huge fiscal deficit and the excessive accumulation of public debt have laid hidden dangers for economic recovery.

02

The influence of domestic environment on foreign trade situation

In 2020, facing severe challenges and major difficulties, my country's economic growth was significantly better than expected, and it was the only major economy in the world that achieved positive growth. The annual GDP increased by 2.3% year-on-year, breaking through 100 trillion yuan for the first time, accounting for the world economy It is expected to reach around 17%. 2021 is the first year of my country’s "14th Five-Year Plan", the beginning of the establishment of a new development pattern, and the meeting of the two centennial goals. The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year emphasized the need to continue to do well in 2021. We will work hard to keep the economy operating within a reasonable range. In addition, the signing of RCEP and the completion of China-EU investment agreement negotiations will also inject new impetus into the development of China's open economy. In general, affected by factors such as the low base in 2020, my country's economy is expected to achieve rapid growth in 2021. Judging from the forecasts of major international organizations and institutions, my country’s GDP growth rate is basically in the range of 7.9%-9.4%. The World Bank predicts that my country will be the major economy with the highest global economic growth this year. With the accelerated release of a series of "steady growth" policy dividends, the domestic economy is expected to achieve rapid growth in 2021, providing strong support for the stable development of my country's foreign trade.

03

2021 foreign trade outlook

On the whole, due to the low base of my country’s import and export in the first half of 2020 and the recovery of foreign production capacity, it will take time for foreign trade companies to digest the existing orders in their hands and still form a strong support for the trade data in the first half of the year. Rapid growth. In the second half of the year, if the global epidemic is effectively controlled and the economic and social order of various countries is gradually restored, some of the originally transferred orders may return, and the growth rate of imports and exports will gradually stabilize. The growth rate of imports and exports for the year will generally show a trend of high and low. .

In terms of exports, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in December 2020 was 51.9%, which was above the threshold for 10 consecutive months. The new order index was 53.6%, and the manufacturing new export order index was 51.3%, indicating that manufacturing The industry continues to recover steadily. The results of an online questionnaire survey conducted by the General Administration of Customs of export companies across the country also show that the order situation of my country's export companies continues to improve. From the perspective of imports, starting from January 1, 2021, my country will implement temporary import tariff rates lower than the most-favoured-nation tariff rate on 883 commodities, which will boost the import demand for related products. In addition, the acceleration of the strategy of expanding domestic demand and the implementation of the import trade promotion innovation demonstration zone will also provide strong support for import growth. It is foreseeable that with the solid advancement of a series of ultra-conventional "stable foreign trade" policies and measures, my country's import and export scale is expected to maintain growth in 2021, and the high-quality development of foreign trade is expected to reach a new level.

04

policy suggestion

Prioritize entry and exit, and accelerate the construction of a strong trade country. Vigorously carry out export quality improvement actions, improve the export product quality supervision system, build a public service platform for inspection and testing, and establish an important product traceability management platform to comprehensively improve the competitiveness of export products. Give better play to the role of imports in increasing consumption, adjusting the structure, developing the economy, and expanding opening up, accelerate the construction of the national import trade promotion innovation demonstration zone, continue to expand the import of advanced technology, important equipment, key components and scarce energy resources, and support the improvement of people's livelihood Import of related products.

　　
Consolidate the foundation and promote the integration of trade industries. Focusing on accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, with the goal of enhancing the comprehensive competitiveness of foreign trade, we will comprehensively promote the consolidation of the industrial chain and the strengthening of the chain, accelerate the research on key core technologies, transform and upgrade traditional competitive industries, and continue to consolidate the industrial foundation. Give full play to the advantages of the local market to support the reorganization of the supply chain, and strengthen the supply chain of the industrial chain centered on my country. Enhance the synergy and linkage between trade policies and industrial policies, build high-quality and innovative foreign trade industrial clusters, and promote the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade industries.

Unblock channels and improve the international marketing system. Implement the unimpeded trade plan, deepen customs international cooperation, and further enhance the level of trade facilitation. Support enterprises to actively use cross-border e-commerce platforms to increase diversified international market development. Innovate transaction methods and regulatory models to enhance the level of digital trade. Support enterprises to build marketing display, warehousing and logistics, wholesale distribution and after-sales maintenance service networks in key markets. Speed up the construction of new foreign trade infrastructure such as public overseas warehouses, online and offline public service platforms, and promote the construction of an international marketing system.

　　
Two-way linkage to promote the integration of domestic and foreign trade. Under the background of accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, it is necessary to give better play to the role of the key hub and main channel of foreign trade connecting the domestic and international dual cycles and unblocking the global economic cycle, make full use of the domestic and international markets, and accelerate the implementation of "same line and same standard. The "homogeneous" project will optimize the approval and certification services for export-to-domestic products, support foreign trade companies to create and promote brands, and encourage foreign trade companies to rely on e-commerce platforms to unblock domestic sales channels to promote the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade.