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Home > News > US Gulf Coast thermal coal may see another export window

US Gulf Coast thermal coal may see another export window

2016-12-12

The Baker Hughes US oil rig count jumped 21 rigs to 498 on Friday -- the biggest single-week rise since July 2015 and one which likely occurred because of oil prices that stayed mostly above $50/b in the wake of a much-applauded OPEC agreement.

In addition, oil rigs in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, the US' most active basin, jumped by 11 to 246, Baker Hughes said in its weekly rig count.

Also, oil rigs in the DJ-Niobrara Basin of Colorado rose by six to 24, and Eagle Ford oil rigs in South Texas increased by three to 37.

Analysts noted the days previous to the rig count jump comprised the first full week after OPEC agreed late last month to cut production by 1.2 million b/d to boost oil prices out of the $40s/b where they have been largely been stuck for the past eight months.

"I think this may be a post-OPEC flush, or an acceleration forward of next year's rig demand growth," Evercore analyst James West told S&P Global Platts.Details of the OPEC accord, which are still to be mapped out, will take effect in January.

Oil prices have been below $70/b since roughly December 2014, after OPEC agreed not to prop up falling prices that had fallen from the $100/b level earlier that year. Since that time, prices sank further and fell below $27/b briefly in each of January and February 2016.

But as oil prices gradually rose afterward and hit the mid-$40s, oil companies began to add rigs, particularly in the Permian Basin where opportunities are vast and producers say economics are strong.

At the same time that oil prices stabilized at that level, oil operators that had tinkered with new well drilling and completion techniques and tackled efficiencies for the previous year and a half had lowered their drilling costs to profitable levels. Their work paid off with the result that drilling became profitable at oil prices in the mid-$40s/b to $50/b.

The rig count "is starting to react to prices and the high investment interest in the Permian," James Williams, president of WTRG Economics, said. "Also, you can lock in most of 2017 and 2018 [production] at almost $55 per barrel."

In Evercore's annual Global E&P Spending Outlook for 2017, released on Friday, West said upstream operators have "rushed" to lock in future cash flows through hedging since OPEC's November 30 agreement.

West said a large part of the independent oil companies that Evercore covers are currently 31% hedged.

"That should move north of 50%" by early next year," he said in a Friday webinar to present results of the global spending survey.

"Increased hedging activity provides a base forward of activity if oil does give back some gains, but 50% hedged next year wouldn't be too much above average," he added. "We see continued upside to activity and spending, assuming oil price cooperation."

Even though drilling activity typically slows around the US holiday season from mid-November until year-end, shale operators, particularly in larger basins such as the Permian and DJ-Niobrara, have made acquisitions in recent months and have said they want to head into 2017 full blast.

Evercore's Global E&P Spending Outlook found North American upstream operators plan to increase spending by 21% next year and US operators by an average 25%.

US oil-directed rigs hit a recent bottom of 316 during the last week of May.


Disclaimer: ECHEMI reserves the right of final explanation and revision for all the information.

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