Cost Pressures Mount as PC Market Weakens in Mid-November

November 18th, according to news,

Price Trend

According to the bulk commodity list data, in mid-November, the Chinese PC market trend was mainly fluctuating. The spot prices of most grades showed a mix of increases and decreases. As of November 18th, the mixed benchmark price for PC was around 13,766.67 CNY/ton, with a price change rate of -2.82% compared to early November.

Reason Analysis

Supply side: In late October, maintenance of PC polymerization enterprises in China was relatively concentrated, with plans to gradually restart by mid-to-late this month. Recently, there have been both factory restarts and maintenance. Zhejiang Petrochemical has announced maintenance plans covering multiple production lines, and Luxi Chemical also has some production lines shutting down. On the other hand, after the full restart of Lihuayi Weiyuan, supply has recovered, and the industry operating rate has slightly increased by 2% to over 76%. The weekly average production is close to 64,000 tons, an increase from the early part of the month. Inventory levels, after the previous digestion, are currently under control. Overall, the changes in support from the PC supply side are limited. With expectations of a more relaxed supply in the future, the pressure on factories to move goods may increase.

Raw Materials Perspective: As shown in the chart above, the Bisphenol A market continued its downward trend in mid-November. Upstream phenol and acetone prices remained at low levels, offering little support to the BPA market. Additionally, there has been no improvement on the consumer end for BPA, further contributing to the weak spot price amid multiple overlapping factors. Although market sentiment in China remains subdued, the spot price has already fallen to historically low levels. However, with factories facing minimal inventory pressure, companies and traders are increasingly adopting a strategy of maintaining higher price levels, which is helping to stabilize the market from further declines. Looking ahead, BPA prices are expected to stabilize, though support for PC costs will likely remain limited.

Demand Side: Downstream factories continue to operate at less-than-ideal capacity levels, with buyers maintaining a strategy of buying on dips amid weak, rigid demand. Meanwhile, export markets are also sluggish, prompting PC-end manufacturers to adopt a conservative production schedule. Throughout the period, traders have mostly been reacting passively to market conditions, while industry players remain cautiously optimistic, preferring to wait and see. After initial restocking needs were met, market activity has once again cooled down, and the pace of goods circulation has slowed again. Overall, demand remains only marginally supportive of PC spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

In mid-November, the Chinese PC market was stable but weak. The upstream bisphenol A prices fell to a low level, and the cost support for PC was not strong. The operating rates of Chinese PC polymerization plants remained largely stable with minor adjustments, and there is an expectation of a recovery in the future. The market trading situation remained sluggish, with a balance between bullish and bearish factors. It is expected that the short-term PC market will enter a stalemate and consolidation phase.