The profit of pesticide industry chain inclines to the formulation and sales end

  The global plant protection product industry has a high concentration, and the pharmaceutical companies are dominated by overseas giants

 Plant protection products are a variety of products used to control diseases, pests and weeds that harm agricultural production, and play a greater role in the agricultural industry in terms of yield and food security. Without proper plant protection products, the production of most crops can be reduced by more than half.

The industry chain of plant protection products can be divided into five major links: raw materials - intermediates - technical production - formulations and packaging - sales. The pesticide industry is in the middle of the stream, including pesticide intermediates, technical production and formulation processing, and the upstream industry is the basic chemical raw materials. At present, China's chemical industry system has been relatively complete, and the supply of raw materials is sufficient, which provides raw material guarantee for the production of pesticide enterprises. The downstream industry is mainly agricultural production fields such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and health fields, etc. The downstream industry belongs to the basic industry of the national economy, and the demand for pesticide products is relatively rigid, which plays a role in promoting the sustainable development of the pesticide industry.

The agricultural safety policy has promoted the market scale of China's plant protection product industry to continue to increase. In recent years, China has always put the guarantee of food security in the first place, the central document No. 1 in 2023 requires that the foundation of food security be consolidated in an all-round way, and the revitalization of the seed industry be deeply implemented, referring to the "overall control of food and important agricultural products", "strengthen the production, storage and transportation control of fertilizers and other agricultural materials". According to AgbioInvestor data, the market size of plant protection products in China will reach 49.7 billion yuan in 2022, with a compound growth rate of 4.28% since 2017; It is expected to reach 51.5 billion yuan in 2023.

The global plant protection products industry concentration is high, the domestic market concentration is low, and the market share of enterprises is small. In 2021, the global plant protection product industry has a high concentration, and the top five market shares (calculated by the unified standard of preparation business revenue) are Syngenta (28%), Bayer (17%), BASF (11%), Corteva (11%) and UPL(8%). CR5 reached 75%; The market concentration of China's plant protection product industry is low, and the top five market shares in 2021 are Syngenta (11%), Rainbow (4%), Sino-agri(3%), Nutrichem (3%) and Wynca (3%), CR5 is only 24%.

The domestic pesticide industry manufacturers are mainly generic and pesticide intermediates enterprises, and the field of pesticide creation is dominated by international giants. At present, the global pesticide enterprises can be divided into three echelon. The first echelon is the pioneering pesticide enterprises represented by Syngenta, Bayer, BASF and DowduPont. The second tier is the generic pesticide enterprises that expand their market share by their advantages in R&D, production, sales channels and marketing, such as Adama, FMC, Sumitomo Chemical and Nufarm. The top two echelons account for about 90% of the global pesticide market, and the remaining pesticide companies usually supply raw materials to the top two echelons or focus on regional markets.

Generic technical enterprises mainly produce pesticide technical whose patents have expired or are not protected by patent law, and sell them to downstream formulation manufacturers; Pesticide formulation manufacturers mainly purchase technicals from upstream enterprises, process and produce formulation products directly used in agricultural production by adding various auxiliaries and adopting appropriate compounding processes, and then sell them to end users through a wide range of marketing channels. Pesticide intermediates enterprises are upstream of technical enterprises, mainly providing customized intermediates needed in the production process of technical for leading multinational pesticide enterprises and other technical manufacturers, and do not participate in the competition of pesticide terminal market.

Although China encourages research and development innovation, it is currently a major producer and exporter of pesticides in the world, but the proportion of overall research and development investment is still low compared with international giants, and the dominant position of the global pesticide industry is still occupied by a few giants, and the domestic pesticide industry manufacturers are mainly generic and pesticide intermediates.

In addition to part of the pesticide in water solubility can be used directly, the others must be processed into formulations according to their properties to be used. 

The EC is a relatively stable emulsion formed by mixing the pesticide, organic solvent and emulsifier in the reaction kettle to form a transparent liquid and adding water. EC is the simplest pesticide formulation, and the active ingredients that can be dissolved in organic solvents can be processed into cream, which contains fewer components, has the widest adaptability to the technicals, and is easy to use, and is one of the most stable pesticide formulations.

WP is one of the traditional formulations of pesticide registration in China, which is made by mixing pesticide and filler. It has a long history, mature technology and convenient use. WG is a granular pesticide formulation which can disintegrate quickly and disperse to form suspension after entering water. It has the advantages of suspension, dispersion and good stability. 

SC is a product that processes the solid effective components of pesticides that are insoluble in water into fine particles, and adds surfactants and other additives to disperse and suspend in water to form a stable suspended liquid. It has the characteristics of no dust production, low percutaneous toxicity, high suspension rate, high biological activity, small dosage and low production cost.

In recent years, pesticide dosage forms at home and abroad have maintained a relatively stable structure, conventional formulation types such as EC, WP, SP account for about 50%, the number of registered products such as SC, EW, ME and other formulations has developed steadily, accounting for about 20%, and Gr and CRF account for relatively little.

 The difficulty of new pesticide research and development has increased, and the profit of the pesticide industry chain has tilted to the formulation and sales end 

The profit points of the pesticide industry are mainly concentrated in the research and development and sales at both ends of the industrial chain, the downstream consumption of pesticide products is relatively stable, the research and development investment of the creation of pesticides is large, the development cycle is long, the risk is high, and the barriers to entry are high. After decades of development, pesticide products have experienced several generations of upgrades, product categories are complete, the use effect is improved, the discovery of new ingredients and the development difficulty of new products has increased significantly, the creation of pesticide enterprises in order to ensure the leading product advantages, have to increase their research and development investment, the proportion of global agrochemical enterprises in the research and development end has risen to a certain extent. Lower return per unit of input. Therefore, at present, the main profitable links of the global pesticide industry chain are concentrated in formulation s and agricultural resources services, accounting for more than 60% of the industry chain, and profits are tilted to the sales end.

 From 2010 to 2014, the research and development cost of new pesticide products reached 286 million US dollars, an increase of 21%, 39% and 11.70% compared with 1995, 2000 and 2005 to 2008, respectively. An average of 159,600 compounds were synthesized and studied for the successful registration of a new pesticide active ingredient, an increase of 203.95%, 14.45% and 13.98% compared with 1995, 2000 and 2005-2008, respectively. The time from first synthesis to first marketing of a new active ingredient is also increasing, with an average of 11.3 years between 2010 and 2014, up 3 years from 1995, 2.2 years from 2000 and 1.5 years from 2005 to 2008.

The pesticide industry is in a destocking cycle, and the industry prosperity is expected to improve 

The pesticide industry is expected to recover, and the export volume is rising. According to the China Pesticide Industry Association, since the second half of 2021, affected by policies such as dual control of energy consumption, upstream raw materials have risen sharply, the industry's operating rate is insufficient, supply is limited, and the pesticide price index has risen. After January 2022, with the price of major pesticide products such as Glyphosate falling, the price index of pesticide technicals fell, and it is still fluctuating at a low level. Since April this year, China's export volume of herbicides, pesticides and fungicides has been increasing, and with the inventory reduction of the global pesticide industry, the industry boom is expected to rise

Investment advice 

The industry chain of plant protection products can be divided into five major links: raw materials - intermediates - technical production - formulations and packaging - sales. The global plant protection product industry has a high concentration, and the field of pesticide creation is dominated by international giants. The domestic market concentration is low, mainly by generic and pesticide intermediates enterprises, and the market share of enterprises is small. As the discovery of new ingredients of pesticides and the development of new products has increased significantly, the return on research and development investment per unit has decreased, and the main profit links of the global pesticide industry chain are concentrated in formulations and agricultural materials services, accounting for more than 60% in the industry chain, and profits are tilted to the sales end. With the inventory reduction of the pesticide industry, the domestic pesticide export volume is rising, and the industry prosperity is expected to rebound. It is recommended to pay attention to the formulation production and sales service sectors with relatively concentrated profits in the pesticide industry chain, such as Rainbow