Analysis of China's MMA market trends in the fourth quarter, the market outlook may end calmly

After the China's MMA (Methyl methacrylate) market entered the fourth quarter, the market opened weakly due to abundant post-holiday spot supply. After a wide decline, the market rebounded from the end of October to early November due to the intensive maintenance of some factories. The market performance was strong in the middle to late period. However, after entering December, the weak supply and demand situation continued the market game.

The spot stock is abundant and the market is weak

After the MMA market entered the fourth quarter, the market opened weakly due to abundant post-holiday spot supply. At this time, the holders are active in spot shipments, the quotations are weak and falling, and the mentality of buy when the prices are going up instead of going down is spreading in the market. These factors caused the average price in the East China secondary market in October to fall from 12,150 yuan/ton in September to below 11,000 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand were short in mid-term, and the market rebounded

In the market from the end of October to mid-to-early November, due to the impact of centralized factory maintenance, there was a periodic supply shortage. At the same time, cost support is relatively strong, and prices have begun to rebound after a wide decline in October. However, the demand side has not improved significantly, and some downstream sectors have declined the loading during the month. The upward resistance to the market still exists in the middle and late half of the month.

MMA factory production capacity resumes and market remains stable

After entering November, supply dropped significantly, which provided some support for prices. As a result, the market rose in early November. At this stage, the negative correlation between output and price is particularly prominent. However, as some factories resumed operations in late November, the market became lighter due to the balance between cost and supply and demand.

December MMA trend forecast

After entering December, the market continued the stalemate situation in November. In early December, the market supply side has not yet fully recovered, and the market may be dominated by consolidation. The market cost is still supportive in the mid- to late-term, but there are still variables on the supply side. It is expected that market supply will increase in December, and the market may be slightly weaker. It is necessary to pay close attention to the dynamics of factory equipment.

In early December, factory capacity utilization increased year-on-year. However, as some factories mainly supply contracts and early orders, inventory pressure is still within control. However, there is still no significant improvement in downstream demand, resulting in a slight stalemate in market trading. There is still uncertainty about whether the supply side can be further improved in the mid- to late-term. However, the weak demand situation is difficult to change. The cost aspect still serves as the basic supporting factor, and the expectation of slight weakening cannot be ruled out. It is expected that market fluctuations may be limited. The market is likely to end on a quiet note in the fourth quarter, so we will continue to pay attention to MMA factory equipment dynamics and shipments.