Tuna Prices Rebound in Thailand as Ecuador Experiences Soaring Production

The global tuna trade landscape has been undergoing significant shifts in recent months, with key developments impacting the supply and demand dynamics across major producing and consuming regions.

Thailand, a prominent player in the tuna industry, is witnessing a rebound in tuna (specifically skipjack) prices. According to industry experts at the recent Infofish Tuna Conference held in Bangkok from May 20-22, the expectation is for tuna prices to climb in the coming period. This follows a period of low prices, during which global buyers had secured sizable orders, filling the order books of many Thai canneries for the second and third quarters of the year.

In contrast, the situation in Ecuador presents a different picture. In the Mantas region of Ecuador, tuna supply and demand conditions have seen a divergence. Prices in Mantas have declined from $1,400-$1,500 per ton to $1,350 per ton in recent weeks, with some transactions even dipping below $1,300 per ton at the beginning of the month. This price drop is attributed to the robust production in the waters of Ecuador and Peru, leading to overstocked storage facilities and forcing fishing vessels to queue up for offloading.

Indeed, Ecuador's tuna production has surged significantly in the first four months of the year, reaching 260,000 tons, a 50% increase compared to the same period last year. The country's annual tuna production in 2023 is expected to set a new record at 360,000 tons, with yellowfin tuna accounting for 25% of the total. This surge in supply has put additional downward pressure on the already oversupplied global market, with projections indicating that the 2024 production could exceed 400,000 tons.

However, the tides may turn in the coming months, as Ecuador is set to enter a 72-day fishing moratorium in July, and the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) will implement a one-and-a-half-month FAD (fish aggregating device) fishing ban. These supply reductions in South America are expected to help stabilize prices in the Asian markets.

The global tuna trade itself has been on a downward trend, with 2023 seeing a 2.5% decline in tuna product exports to 1.72 million tons, valued at $8.23 billion, a 5.5% decrease. The Asia-Pacific region accounts for 52% of global tuna trade, or approximately 900,000 tons. Thailand, the world's largest exporter of canned and processed tuna (HS code 160414), has seen its exports decline by 13.5% to 445,000 tons in 2023, with the United States and the Middle East being the country's largest export markets.

As the global tuna industry navigates these dynamic shifts, stakeholders will be closely monitoring the evolving supply and demand landscape to capitalize on emerging opportunities and mitigate potential risks.