Ten Days of Dramatic Change! Turkey May Become the Biggest Winner in Syria

In less than ten days, the situation in Syria has rapidly deteriorated, with opposition forces quickly capturing several key cities. Turkey appears to be the biggest potential beneficiary of this upheaval. At the same time, concerns have arisen regarding the future of China-Syria cooperation. On December 8, Damascus experienced tense moments as opposition forces entered the city, leading to significant changes in the situation once again. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his wife received a high-profile welcome during their visit to China in 2023, and their children are currently studying Chinese in China, reflecting the deep ties between the two countries. China's focus on Syria is rooted in its strategic importance, located at the heart of the Middle East, serving as a crossroads for transportation and energy routes connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa, especially near the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, both crucial hubs for global oil transport. Controlling Syria means gaining a strategic advantage between Eurasia and Africa.

China's cooperation with Syria began several years ago, with plans to invest $2 billion in Syria for the construction of industrial parks, focusing on infrastructure development, real estate, and renewable energy, particularly in the context of post-war reconstruction. Through these investments, China aims to assist Syria in restoring and developing its economy while opening new markets for its enterprises.

China's foreign policy adheres to the principle of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs and respects the choices of various peoples. Therefore, any new Syrian regime is unlikely to easily forfeit opportunities for cooperation with China, provided it maintains a rational approach. In fact, any new government seeking to quickly revive and stimulate the economy will depend on external investment and technological support. China has already invested substantial resources in Syria, including in infrastructure, real estate, and renewable energy. These investments not only aid Syria's post-war reconstruction but also provide significant market opportunities for Chinese enterprises.

From trade data, between January and October 2024, China’s exports to Syria reached $330 million, while imports were only $25,600. The export figures far exceed the import and investment amounts, clearly reflecting Syria's weak consumption and production capabilities. The trade relationship appears to be a one-sided dependency, making it difficult to establish a positive cycle of industrial interaction and economic complementarity.

If the Assad regime collapses, Syria will face a security vacuum. Despite the international community's close attention to the situation, major countries and regional powers show no intention of direct intervention. On December 7, foreign ministers from multiple countries held a meeting in Doha, Qatar, calling for a political resolution to the Syrian issue and an end to military actions. The U.S. has explicitly stated it will not undertake military intervention, with the incoming Trump administration emphasizing its disinterest in intervening in the Syrian civil war, asserting, "This is not our fight." Israel has stated it will not intervene unless attacked, focusing instead on strengthening defenses in the Golan Heights. The influence of Russia and Iran over the situation in Syria will significantly diminish, while neighboring Arab countries also lack interest in intervention.

Against this backdrop, Turkey may emerge as the biggest winner from the changes in Syria. The rapid advances of opposition forces have been supported by Turkish weapons, intelligence, training, and financial backing. Turkey's primary goal is to combat Kurdish armed groups and support a pro-Turkish Islamic regime.

Not only in the Syrian situation, but Turkey has also gained significant advantages in trade relations with China. From January to October 2024, China exported $31.726 billion to Turkey and imported $3.91 billion. Although these figures are not substantial for China, Turkey holds a unique advantage as a transit point for Chinese products entering the European market. Through Turkish ports, such as Istanbul and Izmir, Chinese goods can more easily reach neighboring countries and even penetrate the vast European market. This not only reduces logistics costs but also expands sales reach. Turkey itself is a large market, with a population of over 85 million and a GDP of $1.1 trillion in 2023, ranking 18th globally.

As an emerging economy, Turkey is known as a "new BRICS nation" and is a member of the G20. Additionally, Turkey's e-commerce market is growing rapidly, with projected revenues of $18.75 billion in 2023 and an expected annual growth rate of 13.65% in the coming years. Despite having a lower percentage of internet users compared to China, the rapid development in this sector indicates great potential for the future.

Turkish consumers favor purchasing Chinese-made products, particularly electromechanical products and textiles. In Istanbul's Grand Bazaar, many clothing items from China can be found. In addition to clothing, Xiaomi phones are popular locally, and an increasing number of Chinese automotive brands such as MG, Chery, Leapmotor, and BYD are entering the Turkish market. By 2023, the market share of Chinese automotive brands had reached 6.10%, with a total sales volume of 59,000 vehicles.

Turkey has long aspired to join the European Union, but this path has proven challenging. Nevertheless, Turkey and the EU maintain close economic ties, exemplified by a customs union agreement established in 1995, allowing industrial goods to flow between the two with minimal tariffs. Recently, due to the EU's plans to impose high anti-subsidy taxes on Chinese electric vehicles, some Chinese companies are seeking solutions. For instance, BYD has decided to invest $1 billion to build a factory in Turkey for electric vehicle production to avoid these additional taxes, and GAC Group is considering similar plans. This positions Turkey not only as a bridge between China and Europe but also as an attractive destination for more Chinese businesses and skilled workers.