Polymeric MDI market continued to fall sharply（202104）

I. Core tips and trend quick overview of this issue

1.1 Factory List Price

Wanhua distribution May 2021 list price of RMB22,000/ton; 1-10 days a price of RMB19,600/ton, discounted supply.

BASF May polymerization MDI list price 22,000 CNY/ton, down 4,000 CNY/ton; April settlement 19,500 CNY/ton, down 4,500 CNY/ton.

Huntsman's listed price for May is RMB22,500/ton, down RMB5,500/ton.

II. The current market summary

2.1 Polymerization MDI market overview this month 

In April, the domestic polymeric MDI market continued to fall sharply, as of the end of the month, Shanghai goods in East China, Wanhua goods barrels with tickets out of the warehouse offer reference 18000-18300 CNY/ton, down 3000-3200 CNY/ton.

The overall view of the market in the "factory control policy" and "market shipments are not strong" between the turnover, reflected in the price is down after pulling up, the rebound is not strong and then turn down. However, in the middle of the last period, Shanghai prices are falling to 18800 CNY/ton stop, most of the time, the holding will be at 18800 CNY/ton. Most of the time, the holder will be at 18800 CNY/ton to appear to sell psychology. However, in the last week of April, due to the Shanghai mills'

However, in the last week of April, due to the Shanghai plant's volume operation, the price of 44V and 5005 sources accelerated to fall, so the Shanghai goods also fell below 18800 CNY/ton mark and continued to move down. By the end of the month, Shanghai goods barrels out of the warehouse offer at 18000 CNY/ton, the actual single has a small negotiating space.

At the same time, PM200 prices also continued to move down, the PM200 barrel out price fluctuated around 19000-20000 CNY/ton during the first and middle of the first half, the factory "tight goods not to accept orders" policy once on the price support, but in the second half of the year, the price of Shanghai goods to accelerate the decline, because of the rapid decline of Wanhua goods, to At the end of the month, the price of barrels fell to 18200-18300 CNY/ton.

At the end of the month, factories announced prices one after another, Wanhua distribution 2021 May listed price of 22,000 CNY/ton; 1-10 a price The price of polymerized MDI in May was RMB22,000/mt, down RMB4,000/mt. BASF's listed price for May polymeric MDI is RMB22,000/ton, down RMB4,000/ton; April settlement is RMB19,500/ton, down RMB4,500/ton; Huntsman's listed price for May is RMB22,500/ton, down RMB5,500/ton. Huntsman's listed price for May was RMB22,500/ton, down RMB5,500/ton.

Despite the maintenance plan of Shanghai factory with the park in May, it is difficult to achieve a reversal of the market in view of the poor expectation of downstream follow-up. The market mentality is generally weak before the festival, which lays the foundation for the post-holiday negotiation shipments, and the price keeps falling slightly after the festival, of course, the whole month, we do not exclude the market to take the opportunity to pull up again after the implementation of the factory overhaul, but the overall rebound is not strong, in a comprehensive view, the polymeric MDI market in May to maintain a weak oscillation pattern.

2.1   Cost and profit analysis  

As can be seen from the chart above, the profit of domestic MDI plants fell sharply in April, with an average profit of 5655 CNY/tonne, down 5189 CNY/tonne from the previous month.

The overall price of polymerized MDI fell during the month, and the price of Shanghai goods fell to around 18,000 CNY/ton by the end of the month, down 3,000 CNY/ton compared with the end of last month, while the cost was rising. According to the statistics of China-Union, the price of pure benzene in East China was 6660-7400 CNY/ton during the month, and the average price rose 528 CNY/ton compared with last month. Rising costs and declining market prices have led to shrinking factory profits. 

2.2 Pure MDI Market Overview

As of the end of the month, the pure MDI Shanghai goods and imported goods in barrels with tickets in East China were quoted at RMB21,500/ton, down RMB1,500/ton.

Compared with March, the overall performance of pure MDI in April is in slow decline mode, the downstream slurry, shoe soles, such as the overall start is not enough for pure MDI digestion is still weak, the factory and trade market has always been shipping pressure, but in the middle of the month, as the pure MDI market price fell to 21,500 CNY/ton position, the factory began to protect the plate, April 22, Shanghai factory The implementation of the new price of 24000 CNY/ton, the protection plate obvious, downstream inquiries increased significantly, some merchants offer a small increase to 21,800 CNY/ton and actively grasp the single to facilitate delivery. However, the downstream follow-up was poor, which restricted the market atmosphere. Near the end of the month, Wanhua announced the May listing of 23,000 CNY/ton, down 5,000 CNY/ton, so the market turned weaker and weaker again, and the barrel price of Shanghai goods fell to 21,500 CNY/ton again.

Next month, the downstream demand is still weak continue to limit the market trend, but the Shanghai plant with park maintenance with parking plans, the overall supply than in April reduced, in the long and short stalemate, pure MDI market oscillation trend, prices are expected to decline slightly.

III. Market trend forecast for the next period 

IV. Charts and detailed data

4.1 Factory starts

4.1 Related Products  

This month, the domestic aniline market fell continuously and slowly repaired in the second half of the month. At the beginning of the month, the qualified products of Fuqiang plant were released, and after the Qingming Festival holiday, Huatai plant resumed and Jinling Dongying plant resumed one line, which increased the supply volume compared with the previous period, while some downstream plants were overhauled and the demand performance was light, although the raw material side was supported, but the profit of aniline manufacturers was high and the cost influence was weakened, so the price went down under the contradiction between supply and demand. Near the middle of the month, the second set of Jinling Dongying device resumed, but Huatai device temporary stop, Yangnong device maintenance, the overall supply change is not large, and Huatai restart delayed.

Under the influence of the continuous rise of raw materials, the profits of aniline manufacturers fell rapidly, and prices began to bottom out slowly upward repair. Next month, two sets of Jinmao devices have resumed production, and Huatai and Yangnong devices will resume soon, while some manufacturers in North China may have maintenance plans next month, the overall supply change is not significant, but Wanhua new devices are expected to be put into operation in May-June, and some downstream devices have maintenance plans, supply and demand are still contradictory, but in the short term, due to the support of raw materials, the domestic aniline market or consolidation wait and see, the medium-term or due to supply and demand contradictions exist down. There is a risk of decline in the medium term. As of today, the mainstream negotiation in East China is around 10800-11000 CNY/ton exchange, and the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 10600 CNY/ton cash and 10800 CNY/ton exchange.

This month, the domestic rigid foam polyether market with the upward adjustment, the end of the month than last month rose 2.67%. The whole month, the downstream refrigerator freezer and cold chain logistics industry production compared to last year's output to maintain growth rate, the traditional peak season demand-side favorable drive polyether factory shipments, hard foam polyether monthly average price although the ring than last month has been adjusted downward, but by the impact of raw material cost side PO compared to last year's high prices, the overall new orders to maintain a small number of times just demand, the center of gravity following the PO gradually moved up, the end of the trend slowed down the high level of operation, the overall market The overall market is cautious, the general atmosphere of the new single transaction. So far, North China, the spot exchange ex-factory ordinary 4110 without oil barrel rigid foam negotiation reference 15400-15700 CNY/ton; East China ex-factory ordinary 4110 without oil barrel rigid foam negotiation reference 15400-15700 CNY/ton; East China ex-factory ordinary 4110 without oil barrel rigid foam negotiation reference 15400-15700 CNY/ton Next month's market forecast, in May, the raw material propylene oxide market range oscillation operation, a slight drop is expected, it is expected that the domestic hard foam polyether market with the adjustment fluctuations, and actively receive orders for delivery.

4.2 Import and export data for March 2021

4.2.1 Imports of polymeric MDI

In March 2021, domestic polymeric MDI imports totaled 28293.6 tons, 12% more than the same period last March and 7.6% more than the previous month. At present, domestic imports of polymeric MDI still come from Saudi Arabia, Japan, and South Korea, the three countries accounted for 95.5% of the goods, of which Saudi Arabia imported a total of 11902 tons, accounting for 42%; Japanese imports of 9008 tons, accounting for 32%. 

4.2.2 Polymeric MDI exports grew significantly

In March 2021, domestic polymeric MDI exports totaled 105,585 tons, an increase of 19% over the same period last March and 16.4% over the previous month. The top three export countries are the United States, India and South Korea, of which 38,000 tons were exported to the United States, accounting for 36%, 0.71 million tons to India and 0.70 million tons to South Korea, both accounting for 7%.