The epidemic in India continues, the prices of these pesticides are expected to rise

India is a major global exporter of pesticides, dyes, and pigments. If the epidemic situation in India continues to worsen and production capacity is limited, production activities related to the export chain will be stagnated, and related industries will be greatly affected. Indian export orders are expected to be transferred to my country in large numbers. Domestic pesticides , Dyes, pigments and other companies are expected to usher in both volume and price increases.

As of May 6, 2021, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus in India has reached 20,665,148, and this number is still rising at a terrifying rate every day. What's even more creepy is that common sense tells us that the real data in India is far more than that. According to some experts, it may be at least multiplied by 5.

India is a major global exporter of pesticides, dyes, and pigments. If the epidemic situation in India continues to deteriorate and production capacity is limited, production activities related to the export chain will be stagnated, and related industries will be greatly affected. Indian export orders are expected to be transferred to my country in large numbers. Pesticides, dyes, pigments and other companies are expected to usher in both volume and price increases.

Supply is significantly affected, and the domestic chemical industry may usher in both volume and price increases

As the sixth largest chemical producer in the world, India’s chemical sales account for a relatively high proportion of the world, and the epidemic has affected chemical exports significantly. According to the 2020-21 report of the Ministry of Chemistry and Petrochemicals (DCPC), India’s exports of chemicals and chemical products (excluding pharmaceutical products and fertilizers) accounted for 14.9% in 2020-21 (as of September 2020). In the same period in -20, it was 12.4%.

Under the premise of the continued impact of the Indian epidemic, the supply of dyes and pigments in India will be significantly affected, but the downstream demand for dyes in other regions of the world is gradually recovering, and orders for dyes and pigments are expected to be transferred to Chinese companies. my country’s dyes and pigments Leading companies are expected to benefit, ushering in both volume and price increases.

It is expected to take over orders for technical materials and intermediates, and the pesticide sector fluctuates higher

Affected by the continued fermentation of the epidemic in India, the domestic pesticide sector oscillated higher on April 28, with Hailier rising by more than 8%, Jiangshan shares by nearly 6%, and Winbond Health by nearly 5%.

India has a total of 334,000 tons of pesticide production capacity in 2019-20, and achieved 192,000 tons of pesticide production, a year-on-year decrease of 11.3%. The varieties with higher pesticide production capacity are mancozeb (85 thousand tons), dicloxone (34,000 tons), 2,4-D (27,000 tons), cypermethrin (24,000 tons), and acephate (24,000 tons). 21,000 tons), monocrotophos (14,000 tons), glyphosate (13,000 tons), phorate (12,000 tons) and profenofos (11,000 tons). In terms of the scale of pesticide production, India’s pesticide production in Asia is second only to my country, but the output gap with my country is nearly 10 times (my country’s output of chemical pesticide technicals is 2.15 million tons in 2020).

During the last round of the outbreak in India, the Indian government issued a blockade exemption order for agricultural production and business activities, so that related business activities such as pesticides can proceed smoothly. The impact of the current outbreak of the epidemic on the local pesticide production in India has not been apparent for the time being, and has not yet been transmitted to the price level of relevant domestic pesticide products in my country.

However, if the epidemic continues to affect, some of the orders for technical medicines and intermediates will be expected to be taken over by domestic pesticide companies. As the global supply of related pesticides shrinks, the prices of related pesticides are also expected to gradually increase in the short term.

The world's pharmaceutical factories cut off supply, and demand may flood into the country

India is the world's second largest supplier of APIs after the United States, accounting for 12% of the world's total. In India's API market, exports account for nearly 50%. Now that the epidemic situation in India has worsened again, some local pharmaceutical factories have stopped production, and the normal production of APIs will inevitably be affected, which will also exacerbate the shortage of global APIs. When the epidemic in India was completely out of control, the "World Pharmaceutical Factory" India once restricted the export of 26 kinds of APIs, which caused global concern about the shortage of APIs.

Earlier, industry insiders pointed out that during the new crown epidemic, Indian APIs will have a certain spillover impact on the global industrial chain.

After the United States and India, my country's API supply accounts for 9% of the world's total, ranking third. In the API market, thanks to China's first recovery from the epidemic, some of the API orders of foreign pharmaceutical companies will be transferred to China in the short term, which will bring certain opportunities for Chinese API manufacturers to seize a certain market share. As the Indian epidemic is out of control again, it will also have a certain stimulus effect on the domestic API market in the short term.

The continued epidemic of new crown pneumonia in India may disrupt the global drug supply chain and exacerbate supply shortages. It is expected to maintain relatively high prices in a state of imbalance between supply and demand, bringing potential full-year performance flexibility to relevant domestic API companies. This can be seen from the recent collective surge in API-related stocks. Manova has hit the daily limit for three consecutive trading days. For example, the daily limit of the new shares of Common Pharmaceutical, Tonghe Pharmaceutical once soared more than 15%, Hisun Pharmaceutical, Zhejiang The share prices of related companies such as Pharmaceutical, Seto Bio, Yongan Pharmaceutical, and Garden Bio also rose sharply during the intraday trading.

Under the impact of the epidemic, India’s supply "turned off", accelerating the start of a new global industrial cycle. China is relatively complete in many industrial chains such as textiles, chemicals, and pesticides. At present, some industries have received "return" orders. Such orders are transferred quickly, and buyers value price and delivery speed more. It is expected that in the future, there will be a situation similar to the return of orders in the second half of last year. my country's chemical, textile, pesticide and other industries will be driven, and the export market trade space is expected to increase. For manufacturers, this indicates a better future situation and soaring profits, but for domestic downstream industries, the increase in raw material exports means that the domestic market is further reduced, and the emergence of "rush buying" will give birth to A round of "price hikes."