Benzene: Most of the price increases this week are related to the trend of the US market（20210430-20210508）
1. Summary of current market conditions
1.1 Market volatility and analysis of sub-pure benzene in Europe and America
|
Price type |
April 29 price |
May 7 price |
Ups and downs |
Unit |
|
Asia FOB Korea |
956.17-957.17 |
1059.17-1060.17 |
+103 |
USD/ton |
|
Europe FOB Rotterdam |
1393.00-1393.50 |
1544.25-1544.75 |
+151.25 |
USD/ton |
|
FOB U.S. main port |
1255.65-1255.95 (419.95-420.05 cents/gallon) |
1363.29-1363.59 (455.95-456.05 cents/gallon) |
+107.64 （+36） |
US dollars/ton (US cents/gallon) |
Figure 1. 2018-2021 European and American sub-pure benzene trend chart
Fluctuation and analysis of domestic pure benzene market
Figure 2. Comparison of petroleum benzene-hydrogenated benzene-crude benzene prices from 2020 to 2021
Before the holiday, the domestic pure benzene market was supported by downstream pre-holiday stocking demand, and the market rose strongly. After the holiday, the market's rally continued. During the holiday season, pure benzene in Europe and the United States rose sharply in external markets, driving the price of pure benzene in Asia. At the same time, crude oil prices remained strong. Driven by the positive external environment, the domestic market was bullish, and the price difference between internal and external markets widened. At the same time, the downstream styrene market continues to run strongly, which supports the continuous rise of the East China pure benzene market negotiations. The northern refinery benzene manufacturers are also actively pushing up. The hydrogenated benzene manufacturers signed two more weeks of orders before the holiday. The new price after the holiday is less. Looking at next week, the supply of pure benzene in Europe and the United States will continue to be tight, and the external disk will maintain a high level. On the supply side, although some petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene plants have restarted operation, driving the increase in supply, the petroleum benzene plant will still be intensively overhauled in May. The tight pattern is maintained. In terms of port inventory, with the arrival of the port at the end of the month, the reservoir area has a tired inventory performance. Styrene is affected by the sudden explosion of Ningbo Keyuan, and the market is rising, which also supports the price of pure benzene. On the whole, the market will continue to operate at a high level next week, and the main operating prices are still expected to rise. However, considering that some downstream profits will be damaged due to the increase in the price of pure benzene, the room for the price of pure benzene to continue to rise may be narrowed. Continue to pay attention to crude oil and benzene. The impact of changes in the ethylene market on the market.
As of May 8, the spot negotiated price of pure benzene in East China was around RMB 7,900-7920/ton, and the mainstream price was raised by RMB 470-500/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Shandong was RMB 7,700-7850/ton, which was higher than last week. Last week, the price was raised by RMB 350-450/ton. The reference price for hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu is 7800-7900, and the mainstream price is increased by RMB 450/ton from last week; the mainstream price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong is around RMB 7,400-7450/ton, which is an increase of RMB 250/ton from last week.
|
product name |
April 30 |
May 8 |
Remarks |
|
Petroleum Benzene from East China |
7400-7450 |
7900-7920 |
Yuan / ton |
|
Delivered to East China for hydrogenated benzene |
7350-7450 |
7800-7900 |
Yuan / ton |
|
Crude Benzene Extracted from East China |
5200 |
5200 |
Yuan / ton |
|
Sinopec Huadong Pure Benzene Listed |
7400 |
7700 |
Yuan / ton |
Table 1. Price comparison of petroleum benzene-hydrogenated benzene-crude benzene
2、The next market trend forecast
|
Driving factors |
Next forecast |
Drive direction |
|
Peripheral |
The current crude oil futures market has entered a critical period of break-through. Although the overheating of the commodity market is a foregone conclusion, the potential for further break-through of crude oil futures is huge, but the possibility of a short-term market crude oil correction still exists. The US-Iranian nuclear talks have recently been neglected by the market, but the United States has already expressed its approach to sanctions against Iran’s oil. Then the probability of returning to the nuclear agreement will increase indefinitely. This will still be the killer tool for restricting oil prices. In addition, the latest crude oil import data from Japan and China has declined compared with the previous month. It is an indisputable fact that the procurement intensity in the Asia-Pacific region has declined. The market is waiting for more crude oil producing countries to release official prices. After Saudi Arabia cuts official prices for Asian sales, other oil producers There is a high probability that the country will follow up, which will inhibit the further upward trend of oil prices, and the latest US non-agricultural data is far less than expected, which has also poured cold water on the overheated speculative atmosphere in the financial market. It is judged that oil prices may face a correction in the short-term. |
neutral |
|
Outer disk |
The tight supply in the United States and soaring spot prices have driven the pure benzene market in Asia and Europe. At the same time, rising prices in Europe and Asia have contributed to the bullish sentiment in the US benzene market. |
Good |
|
start |
Although some petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene enterprises restarted operations, and the start-up of petroleum benzene rose to 80.2%, the petroleum benzene plant was still intensively repaired in May, and the tight supply pattern remained unchanged. Regarding hydrogenated benzene, the start-up load has increased, and the inventories of manufacturers are low, so there is no pressure on shipments. |
Neutral |
|
demand |
At the start of construction, the restart of aniline Huatai was postponed to after 5.10, Yangnong is preparing to restart, the Nanhua plant has reduced the load, the Jinling Dawang plant has half load; the styrene Ningbo Keyuan plant deflagration shut down; the adipic acid Shandong Hongding plant restarted, One line of Liaohua Chemical Company restarted; the Shanxi Fengxi plant of cyclohexanone restarted, and the load of the Yongrong plant in Fujian increased. Nanjing Chemical Industry plans to overhaul next week. |
neutral |
|
Styrene |
Although port inventory has increased, and Huatai Shengfu’s new capacity of 300,000 tons is rumored to have qualified products off the assembly line, the short-term positive release has accelerated the rise of the market and is expected to hit the previous high. |
Good |
|
Port inventory |
Port inventory rose. |
Bad news |
|
Comprehensive judgment |
The market will continue to run at a high level next week, and the main operating price is still expected to rise. However, considering that the increase in the price of pure benzene has damaged some downstream profits, the continued upward space of pure benzene prices may be narrowed. Continue to pay attention to the changes in the crude oil and styrene market. The impact of the market. |
- |
Table 2. Drive analysis and forecast of pure benzene market
3. Charts and detailed data
3.1 Supply changes
|
Company Name |
Involved capacity (10,000 tons/year) |
Remarks |
|
Jingbo Petrochemical Phase II |
14 |
The device is normal |
|
Guangrao Huaxing Petrochemical |
5 |
The device is normal |
|
Panjin Zhongtian Haoye |
7 |
1.2 million tons/year reorganization is normal |
|
Kenli Petrochemical |
5 |
The device is normal |
|
Yangtze Petrochemical |
49 |
The device is normal |
|
Guangrao Zhenghe |
5 |
The device is normal |
|
Luqing Petrochemical |
3 |
Stable reforming operation |
|
Dalian Hengli Petrochemical |
90 |
Device operation |
|
Hebei Xinqiyuan |
5 |
Device drive |
|
Zhenhai Refining & Chemical |
47 |
Device drive |
|
Qinzhou, Guangxi |
9 |
The device is normal |
|
Fujian United |
36 |
The device is normal |
|
Renqiu Petrochemical |
10 |
The device is normal |
|
Qirun Petrochemical |
5 |
The device is normal |
|
Shengxing Petrochemical |
5 |
The device is normal |
Table 3. Latest developments of petroleum benzene plant
|
Province area |
Company Name |
Capacity (10,000 tons) |
Installation status |
|
Hebei
|
Xingtai Xuyang |
20 |
The device is operating normally |
|
Tangshan Xuyang |
20 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Tangshan Zhongrun |
30 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Hebei Rongte |
15 |
Long-term shutdown of the 50,000-ton plant and normal operation of the 100,000-ton plant |
|
|
Tangshan Dimu |
15 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Hebei Minhai |
10 |
Restart the device |
|
|
Ruixinjinhua |
10 |
The device is shut down for overhaul and is scheduled to restart in May |
|
|
Hebei Kingboard |
10 |
During the holiday, the device will be parked for maintenance and planned to restart on the weekend |
|
|
Tangshan Baoshun |
10 |
The device stops, the restart time is to be determined |
|
|
Handan Yulong |
10 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Shandong |
Huineng |
20 |
The device is operating normally |
|
Weijiao |
20 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
HTC |
16 |
Restart the device |
|
|
Derun |
15 |
Device continues to stop |
|
|
Chen Yao |
15 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Jade Emperor |
14 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Jinneng |
10 |
Maintenance will be suspended from July 6th, restart time to be determined |
|
|
Yu Kai |
10 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Honor |
10 |
The device is operating normally |
|
Wanshan |
10 |
Device continues to stop |
|
|
Laiwu Steel |
10 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Hongchang |
5 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Henan
|
Puyang Zhonghui |
20 |
The device is operating normally |
|
Yutian |
16 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Maoyuan |
10 |
Device continues to stop |
|
|
Pioneer |
10 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Anhui
|
Zhuotai |
20 |
Device continues to stop |
|
Linhuan |
10 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Maanshan Iron and Steel |
8 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Inner Mongolia
|
Jianyuan |
10 |
Device parking maintenance |
|
Qinghua |
10 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Mengxi Huarui |
8 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Shanxi |
Three-dimensional |
20 |
Device continues to stop |
|
Lu Bao |
10 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Jin Mao |
10 |
The installation will be shut down for maintenance on May 5, and the planned duration will be about half a month. |
|
|
Get one |
10 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Shanxi Coking |
10 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Liaoning |
Panjin Ruide |
22 |
The device is operating normally |
|
Anshan Iron and Steel |
15 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Jiangsu |
Xinyang Technology |
20 |
The device is operating normally |
|
Shatong (Taixing) |
10 |
The device is stopped for maintenance, and the restart time is to be determined |
|
Ningxia
|
Ningxia Baofeng |
10 |
The device is operating normally |
|
Ningxia Tongde Love |
10 |
The device is operating normally |
|
|
Sichuan |
Daxing Energy |
5 |
The device is operating normally |
|
Chongqing |
Chongqing Zuoneng |
10 |
The device is operating normally |
Table 4. Latest developments of hydrogenated benzene unit
|
product name |
Total production capacity up to now (unit: 10,000 tons/year) |
Operating rate last weekend |
Operating rate this weekend |
|
Pure benzene |
1660.4 |
77.9% |
80.2% |
|
Hydrogenated Benzene |
716.5 |
63.24% |
64% |
|
Port inventory |
|
11.4 |
|
|
total |
2362.9 |
|
|
Table 5 Summary of market supply of pure benzene
This week, petroleum benzene production started at 80.2%, and East China port inventory was 126,000 tons. The overall operating rate of domestic benzene hydrogenation plants was 64%, which was an increase from last week’s start-up load of hydrogenated benzene. Among them, Hebei Ruixinjinhua and Inner Mongolia Jianyuan plants continued to shut down, Hebei Minhai plant and Shandong Hongda plant restarted, Shanxi Jinmao plant , Hebei Kingboard's installation was stopped for maintenance during the May 1st holiday. Looking at the next week, some devices have restart plans, which may drive the start-up load to continue to increase.
3.1 Changes in demand
|
product name |
Operating rate last weekend |
Operating rate this weekend |
East China price last weekend (CNY/ton) |
East China price this weekend (CNY/ton) |
According to Sinopec's listed profit and loss (CNY/ton) |
|
Styrene |
89.3% |
86.12% |
9600 |
10500 |
Profit 887 |
|
Cyclohexanone |
79.92% |
85.16% |
10650 |
11000 |
Hydration method 950 Oxidation method 150 |
|
Adipic acid |
69.4% |
72% |
10300 |
10200 |
Profit 281 |
|
Phenol |
87% |
82 |
8900 |
9350 |
Profit 1349 |
|
Aniline |
64.64% |
63.78% |
10900 |
11610 |
Profit 2333 |
|
Maleic anhydride |
74.2% |
71.9% |
11000 |
11300 |
Profit 1000 |
|
Caprolactam |
83.6% |
84.3% |
13450 |
14000 |
Profit 225 |
Table 6. Summary of downstream start-ups and profit and loss of the pure benzene market
|
product name |
Total production capacity up to now (unit: 10,000 tons/year) |
Demand for pure benzene according to the current operating rate (unit: 10,000 tons/month) |
|
Styrene |
1129 |
64.01 |
|
Cyclohexanone |
456.5 |
32.40 |
|
Adipic acid |
183 (removal and repeated capacity of cyclohexanone) |
8.24 |
|
Phenol |
326.7 |
20.54 |
|
aniline |
361 |
16.50 |
|
Maleic anhydride |
35.6 (Benzene method) |
2.52 |
|
total |
2581.8 |
144.20 |
Table 7. Consumption of pure benzene during downstream construction
Downstream derivatives changes in the next cycle:
|
product name |
company name |
Capacity (10,000 tons/year) |
Start situation |
|
Styrene |
Guangdong Xinhua Yue |
3 |
On March 15 for overhaul, on April 29 the qualified products were off the assembly line |
|
Zhongsha Tianjin |
3.5 |
May overhaul |
|
|
Fushun Petrochemical |
6 |
35 days of maintenance on April 15, 2021, planned to restart in early May |
|
|
Jiujiang Petrochemical |
8 |
Due to the failure, it was shut down for maintenance on March 22, originally planned for 45 days in April 2021 for maintenance |
|
|
Yanshan Petrochemical |
8 |
Overhaul for 50 days at the end of March, plan to restart in early May |
|
|
Lihuayi |
8 |
April 27, 2021 parking for maintenance, 45 days |
|
|
Sinochem Hongrun |
12 |
The trial operation was originally planned to be put into operation at the end of April, but it is now postponed to May. |
|
|
Eastern Petrochemical |
12 |
Stopped for maintenance on March 3 for 45 days, and on April 29 the qualified products were off the assembly line |
|
|
Daqing Petrochemical |
12.5 |
5-6 months maintenance |
|
|
Jilin Petrochemical |
14 |
5-6 months maintenance |
|
|
Abel Chemical |
20 |
Stopped for maintenance on December 29, 2020, has not yet restarted |
|
|
Ningbo Keyuan |
25 |
On May 6th, the device deflagrated and the styrene stopped |
|
|
Tianjin Dagu |
50 |
Overhaul for about 20 days in mid-May, has been postponed |
|
|
Shell Phase II |
70 |
The material was put into operation at the end of March. On April 15 it was officially announced that it was put into production, with 80% of the load |
|
|
aniline |
Shandong Huatai |
10 |
Restart postponed to after 5.10 |
|
Nanhua |
26 |
Reduced to 200,000 tons in operation |
|
|
Shandong Jinling |
26 |
Dongying 200,000 tons full load, Dawang installs half load |
|
|
Jiangsu Yangnong |
3 |
Preparing to recover |
|
|
Cyclohexanone |
Shanxi Fengxi |
6.5 |
The device restarts and starts work on 70% of the ready load |
|
Nanjing Dongfang Chemical |
16 |
The device is expected to be overhauled for a week on the 11th |
|
|
Fujian Yongrong |
20 |
The device restarts and runs at full load |
|
Caprolactam |
Nanjing Dongfang Chemical |
20 |
A set of 200,000-ton/year production line was overhauled in late April, and it is planned to be overhauled until early June |
|
Shandong Haili |
20 |
The device is out of production for overhaul, and the restart time has not yet been determined |
|
|
Fujian Yongrong |
28 |
Starting from April 20th for maintenance, the device restarts on the 29th |
|
|
Phenol |
Yanshan Petrochemical |
30 |
Starting from March 26th for maintenance, it is estimated that about 45 days |
|
Adipic acid |
Liaohua |
7 |
The old line's 70,000-ton/year device resumed operation in June |
|
Shandong Hongding |
7 |
A set of 70,000 tons/year plant started construction at the end of April |
Market demand analysis:
In terms of downstream profits, the prices of downstream products, except for styrene, all declined this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has risen sharply, and the profit level has dropped significantly. The resistance to the high price of raw materials has increased, and the subsequent fear of restricting the price increase of pure benzene.
At the start of construction, the styrene Ningbo Keyuan plant deflagrated and shut down; after the restart of Aniline Huatai was delayed to 5.10, Yangnong was preparing to restart, the Nanhua plant was reduced, and the Jinling King plant was half-loaded; a set of adipic acid Shandong Hongding plant restarted, One line of Liaohua Chemical Company restarted; the Shanxi Fengxi plant of cyclohexanone restarted, and the load of the Yongrong plant in Fujian increased. Nanjing Chemical Industry plans to overhaul next week.
3.1 Inventory changes
Figure 3. Changes in pure benzene inventory at East China ports from 2015 to 2021
As of May 7, Jiangsu's port inventory of pure benzene was 126,000 tons, an increase of 10.5% from the inventory level on April 30, and a decrease of 36.7% from the same period last year. Among them, the cumulative arrival volume was 33,500 tons, and the digestion volume was 21,500 tons. (Mainly include: Jiangyin, Zhangjiagang, Nantong, Changzhou's main reservoir areas).
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