November Cost and Demand Game, Polyester Bottle Chip Prices Fluctuate

In November 2025, the price of polyester chip overall showed a weak and fluctuating trend. According to the data, the price in November fluctuated between 5600 and 5830 CNY/ton. At the beginning of the month, the price of polyester chip was weak. On the 14th, driven by a significant rebound in crude oil, the average selling price rose to 5812 CNY/ton. From the 17th to the 21st, influenced by factors such as cost and supply and demand, the price continued to weaken and fluctuated downward, closing at 5710 CNY/ton on the 21st. After the 21st, the weak trend continued, with the price reported at 5690 CNY/ton on the 24th. On the 25th, factory quotes were mainly concentrated between 5630 and 5810 CNY/ton, and the futures market also showed a weak and fluctuating pattern.

Cost fluctuations are driving short-term price swings: On the 14th, crude oil prices rebounded sharply following the end of the U.S. government shutdown and additional production cuts by oil-producing countries, prompting a rise in upstream raw material prices such as PTA and boosting polyester bottle flake prices on the same day. However, in the mid-to-late part of the month, international crude oil prices experienced volatile downward movements, dragging down the prices of raw materials like PTA and ethylene glycol. Moreover, the transmission of cost increases has been sluggish, making it difficult for factories to maintain high quoted prices, which directly pushed down polyester bottle flake prices.

Loose supply intensifies price pressure: This month, the industry’s operating rate has remained above 70%. Although some plants have undergone maintenance or are undergoing restarts in rotation, overall supply fluctuations have been minimal, leaving ample spot supplies available. Moreover, Shandong Fuhai’s new 300,000-ton facility is expected to begin production by the end of November, further boosting China’s supply. At the same time, factory inventories are likely to enter a seasonal accumulation phase, making it difficult for the supply side to support upward price movements.

Weak demand is restraining price increases: Currently, we’re in the off-season for demand and a gap between stocking up for the Spring Festival. Downstream factories are only maintaining essential restocking to meet immediate needs. On the end-user side, soft drink production from January to October fell by 5.7% year-on-year, making it difficult to boost consumption of bottle flakes. Although export quotations have generally stabilized, they lack positive catalysts and cannot offset the impact of weak demand in China. As a result, market trading remains sluggish, making it challenging to drive prices higher.

Overall, it is expected that the polyester bottle chip market in China will continue to experience a volatile situation in the short term, with upward pressure on prices. It is necessary to closely monitor the trend of international crude oil prices, the supply situation of raw materials such as PX/PTA, and the actual recovery level of downstream orders.

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