In May, the overhaul of the equipment kicked off, and the PVC market outlook is still expected

May is the traditional peak season for PVC maintenance. From Table 1, it can be seen that most companies have maintenance plans in May or have entered the maintenance period. Since May, the market trend of PVC has been quite good. Futures rose, superimposed on the higher prices of upstream calcium carbide, PVC spot quotations rose more and fell less. As of May 10, the mainstream reference quotation of 5 type calcium carbide in East China is 9450-9550 CNY/ton, and the mainstream reference quotation of 5 type calcium carbide in South China is 9470-9600 CNY/ton. So, with the help of the spring inspection, can the market outlook for PVC still advance? Below is a brief analysis of the editor!

In terms of costs, ethylene negotiations in Asia are still limited, profits of downstream derivatives have narrowed, and demand has fallen. Although the price of styrene has risen, profits are also under pressure due to the impact of the price of pure benzene, and there is no hope for an increase in purchasing intentions. While the price of raw blue charcoal is rising, the cost of calcium carbide is supported strongly.

On the supply side, the number of maintenance companies continues to increase, and the pressure on corporate inventories will gradually decrease. At present, most production companies focus on pre-sales, and inventory is basically lower than the same period. At present, the start of PVC enterprise installations is generally around 80%, and the overall market supply is still tight. The price of raw calcium carbide continues to rise, and the market as a whole is in short supply.

On the demand side, May is the peak demand season, and downstream demand is expected to improve, and social inventories will continue to decrease. However, due to the current high prices of raw materials and obvious resistance from downstream terminals, some companies still have a negative decline.

From a macro perspective, the recent rise in PVC futures is acceptable, which has boosted market sentiment to a certain extent. Affected by the epidemic, demand in India has dropped sharply, and PVC exports will face pressure.

On the whole, the current positive factors dominate, and the fundamental support is acceptable, but the macro-level exports are expected to decrease, and small market adjustments still exist in the short term. It is expected that the market outlook is still expected in May, and the overall situation will be strong and volatile.