September 22 report:
As of September 21, 2026, the butadiene rubber differential signal shows a clear downward trend, with prices in the lower range of the 1-year cycle. The weakening of crude oil and butadiene prices at the cost end, combined with low acceptance of high-priced goods downstream, has led to a stalemate in market transactions. In the short term, there is still downward pressure on prices, but the room for decline is limited. The following is a detailed analysis:
1. Average Difference Change Table
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value as of September 21, 2026 | Value as of September 20, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | -2404.40 | 16.00 | - |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | -383.80 | -157.00 | - |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | -124.40 | 102.50 | - |
2. Signal Status Determination
Three differences are all in the same direction as the previous day, and all three are currently negative, indicating a clear downward signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current price trend for butadiene rubber in China is clearly declining.
Reason: According to the rules of the average difference method, the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences all changed in the same negative direction compared to the previous day, meeting the criteria for a clear downward trend. On the fundamentals side, crude oil prices have fallen from their highs, and upstream butadiene prices have weakened, leading to a loosening of cost support. At the same time, there is strong resistance from downstream buyers to high-priced polybutadiene rubber, with high-priced spot transactions remaining stagnant. On September 21, the China National Petroleum Corporation's Northeast Sales Company reduced the factory price of polybutadiene in Daqing and Jinzhou by 200 CNY per ton, further driving down prices.
4. Position Space Reference
Butadiene rubber prices are at a low level for both 60-day and 3-month cycles, while the 1-year cycle price is at a medium-low level (corresponding to the 2nd tier out of 5 tiers), with limited room for further decline in the short term.
5. Trend Chart Display
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
