Weak Downward Trend in China's Soda Ash Market in September

September 29, News

The price trend, providing historical price data and candlestick charts to help investors analyze market trends, price fluctuations, and historical performance.

According to the commodity analysis system, the price of soda ash in September continued to decline. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1210 CNY/ton, and by the end of the month, it had decreased to around 1182 CNY/ton. The overall price decrease for the month was 28 CNY/ton, a 2.31% reduction.

II. Market Analysis

According to the commodity analysis system, the soda ash market in China showed a weak downward trend in September. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash continued to rise, and the market inventory volume kept accumulating; in terms of demand, orders during the traditional peak season for downstream industries increased, but there was little change in the start-up of the glass market, resulting in limited actual consumption of soda ash. The destocking of the soda ash market was average, with the basic situation being strong supply and weak demand, leading to insufficient momentum for price increases, and the prices of soda ash remained weakly stable within the month.

As of September 29, 2025, the mainstream market price for light soda ash in East China was around 1100-1400 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10 CNY/ton from the previous month; in Central China, the main price for light soda ash was about 1130-1300 CNY/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous month; and in North China, the primary price for light soda ash was approximately 1200-1270 CNY/ton, with a reduction of 30 CNY/ton compared to the last month.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system, glass prices have shown a strong upward trend this month, with the average market price rising from 13.88 yuan/square meter to 15.43 yuan/square meter—a total increase of 11.17%. Throughout the month, glass production lines maintained steady operations, resulting in only minor fluctuations in overall supply. Meanwhile, downstream demand intensified during the peak season, enabling companies to ship products smoothly and significantly reducing glass inventories. In the first half of the month, glass prices remained relatively strong amid volatile trading conditions. On the 24th, the glass industry held its regular monthly meeting, where positive market sentiment spurred a sharp rise in glass prices. With manufacturers experiencing minimal inventory pressure, the glass market continues to operate strongly.

Market Forecast: In the near term, soda ash production capacity utilization remains high, and companies continue to face inventory pressure. Although downstream demand trends remain relatively strong, most buyers are focusing on meeting immediate needs rather than making proactive purchases. As a result, demand isn’t providing sufficient support, leading to a noticeable oversupply in the market. Consequently, soda ash prices are expected to trade sideways or slightly weaker in October, depending on how downstream sectors respond.