September Methanol Market Trends Narrowly Consolidate

September 29, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from September 1 to 29 (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports of the Chinese market first rose and then fell from 2253 CNY/ton to 2260 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 0.30% during the period, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.26%.

The overall Chinese methanol market shows a trend of fluctuation and weakness, with the performance of the port and inland markets exhibiting a phased differentiation. The import volume at the ports continues to be high, and the inventory pressure has not been substantially alleviated. The inland market, influenced by supply and demand as well as cost factors, exhibits fluctuations. Continuous pressure on the supply side leads to an accumulation of inventories for enterprises. Pre-holiday inventory clearance by companies, coupled with the impact of low-priced goods from the ports, results in downstream sectors only purchasing according to their needs, leading to a further decline in market conditions.

As of the close on September 28, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed higher. The most active methanol contract, 2601, opened at 2,360 CNY/ton, reached a high of 2,367 CNY/ton, and dipped to a low of 2,347 CNY/ton. It ultimately settled at 2,364 CNY/ton, up 12 yuan from the previous day’s settlement—representing a price increase of 0.51%. Trading volume stood at 170,414 contracts, while open interest totaled 877,555 contracts, with a daily increase in positions of -7,577.

Current Comparison Chart for Methanol:

As of September 29, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions is as follows:

Cost Perspective: Starting in early September, coal prices, after initially stabilizing at low levels, gradually rebounded. In addition to disruptions caused by anti-internal competition policies, growing non-power sector demand and strong pre-holiday stocking activities among downstream users provided solid support. Meanwhile, methanol costs continue to be influenced by relatively positive factors.

Coal/Thermal Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Demand Side: Glacial Acetic Acid: The Northwest factory has raised its starting price for glacial acetic acid by 40 CNY/ton, while shipments from companies remain smooth. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is experiencing mixed trends—some prices are rising, while others are falling. Dimethyl Ether: The dimethyl ether market continues to operate steadily. Meanwhile, most downstream products are influenced by methanol prices, leading to a mixed outlook on methanol demand.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (downstream product) price trend comparison chart:

Supply side, Inner Mongolia Jiuding, Hebi Coal Chemical plant maintenance; Jinneng Huayu, Xinjiang Xinye plants reduced production; Shenhua Xinjiang, Guizhou Tianfu, Guizhou Chitianhua, Inner Mongolia Rongxin, Ningxia Baofeng plants resumed operations. Overall, the amount of resumption is more than the losses, leading to an increase in the capacity utilization rate. The methanol supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the international markets, as of the close on September 25, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $325.5–$326.5 per ton. Meanwhile, the FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market settled at 100–101 cents per gallon, while the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market ended the day at €280.5–€281.5 per ton.

Market Forecast: After the National Day holiday, the market will simultaneously enter a critical phase characterized by upstream companies clearing their inventories and downstream firms replenishing stock levels. Coupled with external factors such as fluctuating freight rates and intensifying competition for regional supply flows, market volatility is expected to become even more frequent. Methanol analysts predict that China's spot methanol market will likely remain in a consolidation phase.