August 24 news
[Key Insight] In the short term, methanol prices are trading in the upper range of the 60-day cycle. The mean deviation indicator suggests a strong, consolidating (bullish-leaning) oscillatory pattern. In the medium term, prices are hovering in the mid-range. Although there is limited room for short-term upward movement, supported by supply-and-demand fundamentals, prices exhibit strong resilience against declines. It is crucial to closely monitor changes in upstream raw material prices and downstream demand.
1. Average Difference Variation Table
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-23) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-22) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 31.50 | 60.84 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 92.17 | 91.66 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 119.17 | 107.17 | + |
2. Signal Status Judgment
Currently, the market is in a volatile—strong consolidation (bullish bias)—as the 5-day moving average difference has narrowed compared to yesterday (change direction: -), while the 10-day and 20-day moving average differences have widened compared to yesterday (change direction: +). The directions of change among these three averages are not entirely consistent, yet the medium- and long-term moving average differences continue to rise, aligning with the bullish-biased consolidation pattern typical of a volatile market.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
Oscillation (with a bullish bias), rationale: The directions of the three average differences are not entirely consistent (the 5-day average difference narrows, while the 10-day and 20-day average differences widen), which does not meet the criteria for a clear trend, thus it is judged as oscillation; at the same time, the 10-day and 20-day average differences continue to rise, coupled with the price being in the mid-range over the medium term, overall showing a strong consolidation with a bullish bias.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
The 60-day cycle price is in the 5th tier (high level), with limited room for further increases.
The 3-month cycle is in the 3rd tier (medium);
The 1-year cycle is in the 3rd tier (median);
In the short term, prices are in a high-range with limited upside potential. However, in the medium term, prices are hovering around the median level, and supported by supply-and-demand fundamentals, making them relatively resilient to downward pressure. Should downstream demand pick up or upstream raw material prices rise, there is a possibility that prices could remain volatile at elevated levels.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Industrial Chain Upstream and Downstream Products
Upstream commodities: Coke oven gas, thermal coal, liquefied natural gas
Downstream Products: Formic acid, methyl methacrylate, sodium methoxide, dimethylamine, dimethyl sulfoxide, glyphosate, dichloromethane, DMF, trimethylamine, formamide, paraformaldehyde, MTBE, chloroform, methanol-diesel, sodium formate, dimethyl ether, methanol-gasoline, monomethylamine, dimethyl sulfate, chloromethane, acetic anhydride, formaldehyde, propylene, acetic acid, ethylene
Seven, Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
