Lithium Industry Leader Optimistically Predicts, Fueling a Surge in Lithium Carbonate Prices

November 20, News

According to the commodity market analysis system: Recently, the price of lithium carbonate in China has soared, reaching a new high for the year. As of November 20th, the benchmark price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 95,266 CNY/ton, up 11.16% for the week and 26.99% for the month. The benchmark price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate in China is 93,433 CNY/ton, up 11.32% for the week and 27.7% for the month.

Ganfeng Lithium optimistic forecast, PriceSeek price increase key reminder

On the 16th, at the 10th International Summit on Power Battery Applications, Ganfeng Lithium's Chairman Li Liangbin predicted that in 2026, the demand for lithium carbonate would increase by 30%, reaching 1.9 million tons. At the same time, the supply capacity, after assessment, is expected to increase by around 250,000 tons, with supply and demand basically in balance, leaving room for an increase in the price of lithium carbonate. If the demand growth next year exceeds 30%, or even reaches 40%, the short-term supply will not be able to balance, and prices may break through 150,000 CNY/ton or even 200,000 CNY/ton.

PriceSeek's key reminder for the next day (17th): The rating has been raised by +2 due to significant forecast deviations and heightened risks of supply-demand imbalances, which could trigger a sharp price surge. On the same day, lithium carbonate futures hit their daily limit up, pushing spot prices even higher—resulting in a 4.16% increase in prices for the day. For more details, visit: https://www.100ppi.com/news/detail-20251117-4970856.html

Price increases are not groundless; strong demand provides solid support.

According to industry data, from January to October, China’s production and sales of new-energy vehicles reached 13.015 million units and 12.943 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 33.1% and 32.7%. Meanwhile, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China during the same period totaled 578 GWh, up 42.4% compared to the previous year.

In the energy storage battery sector, the industry once faced a severe shortage of key components due to factors such as fluctuating global policies and rapid technological advancements. From January to October, China added 94.81 GWh of new energy storage capacity, marking a robust 46.31% increase year-on-year. Additionally, Chinese companies secured overseas orders for energy storage systems totaling 267 GWh, a remarkable 145.6% surge compared to the previous year—and already surpassing the full-year figure from last year.

Raw material price increases have driven stocks in the Chinese market to hit their upper limits.

The boom in the futures market quickly spread to the stock market. According to Stock Connect monitoring: the lithium battery sector saw a full-scale surge, with companies such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Rongjie Co., Ltd., Tianqi Lithium, Yongxing Materials, and Ganfeng Lithium all hitting the daily trading limit. For more details, visit: https://www.100ppi.com/product/?f=gpt.

Lithium carbonate data analysts believe: In the short term, the increase in lithium carbonate demand and the high market sentiment support the rise in lithium carbonate prices. From a long-term perspective, the price increase may stimulate production resumption and commissioning, and the supply side will face pressure. The specific situation still needs to be monitored based on changes in market supply and demand.