October 9th, according to news,
On Thursday, October 8, international crude oil futures closed sharply higher, with WTI and Brent front-month contracts gaining nearly 4%. During the session, both benchmarks at one point rose by more than $5, and Brent reached its highest level since September 17. This round of oil price gains was driven by two main factors: escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East and hurricane-related supply disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, while the refined products sector also strengthened in tandem.
I. Market Performance
On October 8, the settlement price for the U.S. WTI crude oil futures November contract was $91.49 per barrel, up $3.21, or 3.6%. The settlement price for the Brent crude oil futures December contract was $104.28 per barrel, up $4.08, or 4.1%.
November heating oil: +$0.2602, up 5.63% to $4.8829 per gallon. November RBOB gasoline: +$0.0818, up 2.53% to $3.3160 per gallon.
II. Factor Analysis
(1) The Middle East situation remains volatile, driving up shipping risk premiums
As the Iran conflict enters its eighth month, shipping risks in the Persian Gulf have once again become the market’s focal point. Prior to the outbreak of hostilities, the Strait of Hormuz handled roughly 20% of global oil and fuel shipments; recently, the number of tanker attacks in the strait has risen to its highest level since the conflict began, prompting market concerns that the frequency of such incidents could continue to climb.
On the same day, the United States announced a new round of sanctions against Iran, adding 17 vessels that transport Iranian crude oil and petrochemical products to its sanctions list. U.S. estimates indicate that approximately 20 million barrels of Iranian crude oil remain stranded on tankers at sea, and, under the impact of the blockade, loading and unloading operations for Iranian crude have been suspended.
The news landscape is a mix of bullish and bearish factors: President Trump has indicated he will engage in talks with Iran and that no military action against Iran will be taken before the midterm elections, which to some extent dampens expectations of extreme risk; meanwhile, the International Energy Agency’s announcement that it will release strategic reserves and prioritize diesel supply briefly pushed oil prices lower. Overall, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East remains the key underpinning for oil prices.
(II) Hurricane “Isaias” Strikes, Leading to Large-Scale Shutdown of Crude Oil Production Capacity in the Gulf of Mexico
The first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, “Isaias,” is approaching the Gulf Coast and is expected to make landfall Friday in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida’s panhandle. In response to precautionary measures, offshore oil and gas operators have begun shutting down operations and evacuating personnel ahead of the storm.
As of Thursday, crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico had been shut down by 1.3 million barrels per day, accounting for 62.9% of the region’s current output. Shell and Chevron have scaled back offshore operations, while BP has evacuated all personnel and suspended production at its two major platforms, Na Kika and Thunder Horse. The short-term contraction in crude supply has boosted buying sentiment on the trading front, pushing oil prices higher amid supply‑side concerns.
III. Future Outlook
Crude oil analysts believe that, for now, the focus should be on monitoring the U.S. hurricane situation—specifically its landfall intensity and duration—to assess the pace of production‑capacity restoration. If the storm causes physical damage to infrastructure, the shutdown period will be extended, providing sustained support to oil prices; if it results only in short‑term outages, supply will rebound quickly after the storm, leading to a decline in the oil price risk premium. Meanwhile, another key variable is the Middle East: developments in U.S.–Iran negotiations, whether tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz escalate further, and any subsequent U.S. sanctions measures all remain critical factors influencing oil price volatility.
Other factors, follow the implementation of the IEA reserve release: The pace of reserve releases will offset part of the supply gap, suppressing refined oil prices.
Overall, geopolitical risks are sudden, and the path of hurricanes is uncertain. Considering that there hasn't been much change in the supply and demand fundamentals, these two uncertain factors will increase short-term oil price volatility and keep prices at a relatively high level.
