Supply Side Still Has Variables, Lithium Carbonate Fluctuates

December 8th, News

According to the commodity market analysis system: Recently, under the dual influence of supply disruptions and resilient demand, the price of lithium carbonate has been fluctuating. As of December 8th, the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate in China is 92,500 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.94% compared to the same period last week (December 1st), an increase of 16.7% month-on-month, and an increase of 14.24% year-on-year. The benchmark price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 90,800 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.84% compared to the same period last week, an increase of 17.15% month-on-month, and an increase of 15.86% year-on-year.

Supply Side: Disruptive Factors Persist, Lithium Ore Shortage

The Ningde Jiaxia Wo mine has been shut down for 3 months, and the expected resumption of production on December 5th, as spread by market news, has not materialized. Several traders in Yichun region stated that the supply and demand for local lepidolite ore is also gradually changing, with supply failing to keep up with demand.

Overseas supply is showing a contracting trend.

In October 2025, China's import of lithium concentrate was 652,000 tons, a decrease of 8.3% month-on-month, with the import volume from Australia decreasing by 15% month-on-month, and the import volume from Zimbabwe at 150,000 tons (an increase of 41% month-on-month), and the import volume from Nigeria at 120,000 tons (remaining unchanged month-on-month). The import volume of lithium carbonate in October reached 23,881 tons, an increase of 21.9% month-on-month, with 14,800 tons coming from Chile, accounting for 62%.

Demand Side: Downstream resilience remains strong, with both production and sales on the rise.

In October, China's total production of power and other batteries was 170.6 GWh, up 12.9% month-on-month and 50.5% year-on-year; the total export volume was 28.2 GWh, up 5.5% month-on-month and 33.5% year-on-year; sales reached 166.0 GWh, up 13.3% month-on-month and 50.8% year-on-year, with all data showing an upward trend.

Inventory End: The Pattern of Inventory Decline Continues, but the Pace May Slow Down

Lithium carbonate inventory continues to be in a destocking state, with social inventory decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks. In November alone, the destocking reached 20,000 tons. However, it is expected that new energy vehicle sales in China will slightly decline in December compared to the previous month. The production of battery cells and cathode materials in December is also expected to decrease slightly on a month-over-month basis. It is anticipated that lithium carbonate will continue to destock in December, but the pace will slow down compared to November.

Lithium carbonate data analysts believe: Lithium carbonate is currently in a tight supply-demand balance, with ongoing disruptions on the supply side and strong resilience on the demand side. Multiple factors are driving price fluctuations, and it will be necessary to continue monitoring the resumption of production at CATL's Jiaxiwo lithium mine and market changes.