August 17 news
According to the Spotcom AI assistant, the recent Chinese fuel oil market trend first maintained a consolidation phase before showing a slight increase. As of August 16, the 180CST fuel oil spread indicator released a strong consolidation and bullish signal, with prices at a high level within a one-year cycle, and in the high range for 60-day and three-month cycles. In the short term, the market is mainly characterized by volatility, but the bulls have the upper hand, and caution is needed due to the upward pressure from the high price range.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-16) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-15) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | 10 | 17.5 | - |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | 20 | 15 | + |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | -16.88 | -19.38 | + |
II. Signal Status Determination
The current mean difference change direction combination is (－, ＋, ＋), which matches the characteristics of a strong consolidation (bullish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is judged to be volatile (leaning bullish). Reason: The 5-day moving average spread has narrowed compared to yesterday, while the 10-day and 20-day moving average spreads have widened compared to yesterday. The directions of change among these three averages are not entirely consistent, indicating a volatile market condition. Combined with the overall portfolio characteristics, bullish forces still dominate, suggesting a strong, consolidating pattern that leans toward the upside. From the spot market perspective, on August 12, the ex-factory low-sulfur fuel oil 180CST quote in Qingdao rose by 50 CNY/ton, and on August 14, the same specification quote in Shanghai increased by 100 CNY/ton. This indicates that the market is experiencing temporary upward momentum.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
1 year cycle price position: at a medium-high level, with limited upside potential.
60-day price positioning: At a high level, further upside faces significant resistance.
Price position in the 3-month cycle: High; short-term, pay attention to the risk of a pullback.
5. Trend Chart Display
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
