July 30 news
In July, polyester staple fiber as a whole showed a cost-driven upward trend with a slight pullback after peaking, following a pattern of "initial stabilization and rise, mid-month peak, and end-of-month fluctuation and decline." According to the commodity market analysis system, as of July 30, the average market price of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) in China was 7,558 CNY per ton, an increase of 3.38% from the beginning of the month.
At the beginning of the month, market sentiment was relatively weak. In early July, supported by a rebound in crude oil prices and the start of a concentrated maintenance period for PX and PTA, cost floors gradually stabilized, and staple fiber prices began to stabilize and rebound. From mid-to-late July, market conditions continued to strengthen: escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove up international crude oil prices, while simultaneous maintenance at multiple PX plants in Asia and PTA plants in China further pushed upstream raw material prices higher. Polyester staple fiber producers proactively reduced production, keeping industry operating rates at a low level of around 75%. Factory inventories steadily declined, bolstering their willingness to support prices. However, demand from end-users remained weak during the off-season, and coupled with anticipations of an earlier-than-expected resumption of PTA plant operations, prices experienced a slight pullback toward the end of the month.
With costs providing strong support, July marks the annual maintenance window for PX production. Megaton-scale PX units operated by Shenghong, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and other major producers are scheduled to shut down simultaneously, driving Asia’s PX operating rate down to its lowest level of the year and boosting PX quotations. At the same time, major Chinese PTA manufacturers are undergoing concentrated maintenance, leading to a contraction in supply and continued destocking. Coupled with geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, crude oil prices have been fluctuating upward, thereby reinforcing the cost floor for the polyester industry chain from top to bottom.
Supply-side voluntary contraction and slow inventory reduction. The polyester staple fiber industry in China is maintaining low-load operations, with companies adjusting supply through periodic production limits. Factory equity inventory continues to decline, reducing the availability of low-priced goods in the market. This provides a strong basis for maintaining prices, limiting the space for deep price corrections.
However, the downstream sector is in the traditional textile off-season. In July, which is the summer off-season for textiles, the operating rates of pure polyester yarn factories and weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are at a low level compared to the same period, with high gray cloth inventory. The end market lacks large orders, and downstream yarn mills are only maintaining minimal and sporadic purchases, showing weak willingness to stock up, which cannot support a sustained unilateral rise in short fiber prices.
Looking ahead, upstream PTA maintenance facilities are gradually resuming production, leading to a marginal increase in raw material supply; however, the pace of PX facility resumption is relatively slow, so cost support still exists. Coupled with the current low inventory levels in the short fiber industry, the probability of a significant price drop is small. Market trends will continue to follow the fluctuations in crude oil and PTA prices, with any upward momentum still constrained by the weak demand during the off-season. However, starting from late August, the textile industry will gradually begin sampling for autumn and winter fabrics and replenishing inventories. If orders for the autumn and winter seasons continue to materialize, and downstream yarn mills steadily increase their operations, the improvement in demand could potentially drive the price of short fibers higher.
