MTBE Market Prices Fluctuate and Decline

January 9th, news:

According to the commodity market analysis system, from January 4th to 9th, the price of MTBE fell from 4,853 CNY/ton to 4,783 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.44% within the period, down 2.98% month-over-month, and down 17.35% year-over-year. The Chinese MTBE market showed a downward trend with significant declines in some areas. On the first day of the New Year's holiday, the trading atmosphere in the Chinese MTBE market was good, and prices were relatively firm. However, terminal demand did not sustain, and with the decline in international crude oil prices, MTBE export negotiations weakened. The supply pressure in China was high, and under the dominance of negative factors, manufacturers began to offer discounts, resulting in a noticeable downward shift in local prices.

MTBE China production price average trend chart:

Cost Aspect: Regarding crude oil, international oil prices have declined. The primary negative factor is that the situation between the U.S. and Venezuela has not yet escalated further, and the market expects Venezuelan production to increase over the long term, raising the risk of oversupply. As of January 8, the settlement price for the March Brent crude oil futures contract was reported at $61.99 per barrel.

Demand Side: On the downstream gasoline front, weak crude oil prices are weighing on the oil market, and refined oil prices continue to decline. At this stage, terminal demand remains sluggish, social inventory is being digested slowly, and traders in the intermediate links are adopting a cautious approach to ordering. The demand side for MTBE is also influenced by predominantly bearish factors.

Supply side: The capacity utilization rate of MTBE export plants in Shandong region is 63.33%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points. The Dongfang Hongye facility has stopped operations, leading to a decline in the operating rate. The supply side of MTBE is influenced by positive factors.

As of January 9, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected production enterprises:

As of the close on December 8, the Asian MTBE market closed at a price that was up $1.95 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices ranging from $608.32 to $610.32 per ton. The European MTBE market closed at a price that was up $14.75 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB ARA prices ranging from $705.74 to $706.24 per ton. The U.S. MTBE market closed at a price that was up $35.88 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Gulf offshore prices ranging from $623.43 to $623.78 per ton (176.03 to 176.13 cents per gallon).

Market Outlook: China faces significant supply pressure, while terminal demand for gasoline shows little improvement. MTBE analysts believe that the Chinese MTBE market will likely remain in a weak and consolidating trend.