Adiponitrile has a construction capacity of 1.5 million tons. Will there be surplus in the future?
On the eve of the localization of adiponitrile, the domestic pre-built production capacity has reached nearly 1.5 million tons, which is more than three times the current domestic demand. Will there be a surplus of adiponitrile-nylon 66 in the next 3-5 years?
This is a true or false question that even industry veterans are difficult to decide and answer. Whether it is surplus or not is filled with doubts and worries inside and outside the industry.
To dispel doubts about whether there will be surplus, two cognitions need to be clarified: one is how much actual production capacity can be formed in the future, and the other is how much demand growth can be achieved!
How much actual production capacity can be formed?
INVISTA’s butadiene process plant with an annual output of 400,000 tons/year adiponitrile under construction in Shanghai Chemical Industry Park is expected to be officially put into operation in 2022, and Huafeng’s 50,000 tons/year adiponitrile plant with adipic acid process in 2019 It was put into production in October and reached production and operated stably. The second phase of 50,000 tons is under construction. After it is put into operation this year, it will reach an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons. The actual production capacity will be formed in the next 3-5 years by INVISTA’s butadiene method and domestically produced adipic acid method. The only criterion for judging the maturity of petrochemical technology is "Stable, stable, long, full, and excellent". Industrial installations have been successfully completed and put into operation, the process has been opened up, and there must be continuous technological deficiencies, butadiene hydrocyanation method, acrylonitrile electrolytic dimerization method , Butadiene carbonylation, caprolactam ammonification to hexamethylene diamine, it is difficult to produce actual output within at least three years, especially the butadiene hydrocyanation process, which is regarded as the mainstream process, and the continuous technological upgrade of international giants. It reflects the breakthrough of the French production technology for the direct hydrocyanation of butadiene, and extends the time for catching up. It is difficult to match the international level without 8-10 years.
At present, the nearly 1.5 million tons of production capacity planned to be built in China has not yet formed actual production capacity, and there is no surplus, and there is no surplus. It depends on whether an industry has overcapacity or not, and the future growth space depends on the current stage of development. At present, the domestic adiponitrile-nylon 66 is still in the early stage of development, and it is far from entering the period of rapid development after technological breakthroughs.
In the current early stage of domestic adiponitrile development, even if INVISTA’s butadiene process and domestic adipic acid process can form actual production, after the products are released, they will not sell at low prices in order to seize the market, and INVISTA Shanghai Adiponitrile project investment is the capital of foreign shareholders. As a multinational company, it will not lower the sales price after it is put into production. Therefore, the adiponitrile market structure will hardly change in the next 3-5 years.
How much can the demand increase?
At present, adiponitrile, a raw material for nylon 66, is similar to the domestic production process of caprolactam, the main raw material for nylon 6 more than 10 years ago. In the past, caprolactam has been heavily dependent on imports, which has become a major bottleneck restricting the development of nylon 6 in my country. With the localization of caprolactam production technology, the past Within ten years, the domestic production capacity and apparent consumption of caprolactam and nylon 6 have both increased rapidly. In 2011, my country’s caprolactam production capacity was 585,000 tons, and by 2020 it will increase to 4.33 million tons. The nylon 6 polymerization capacity in 2011 was 1.935 million tons, which will grow rapidly within ten years. By 2020, the domestic nylon 6 polymerization capacity will reach 5.34 million tons. /Year, the output and demand are around 4 million tons, and the scope of application continues to expand.
Nylon 66 has better overall performance than nylon 6. The fundamental reason affecting the release of nylon 66 demand is that the raw material adiponitrile has not been domestically produced and the cost is high. The demand has been hovering between 400,000 and 500,000 tons/year in the past five years. The production capacity of nylon 66 will be in 2020. At 560,000 tons/year, the apparent consumption of nylon 66 is about 590,000 tons, which is less than 15% of nylon 6.
There are three new blue ocean markets for nylon 66 in the future:
1. Civil clothing
Nylon 66 feels softer and skin-friendly than nylon 6, and has better fiber permeability, abrasion resistance, temperature and sunlight adaptability than nylon 6. At present, nylon 6 fiber is mainly used for domestic civilian clothing, but nylon 66 fiber has not been used. Nylon 66 fiber is used in civilian clothing in many European countries. High-end clothing and socks are mostly nylon 66 fiber. With the localization of adiponitrile, civilian clothing includes underwear, yoga pants, quick-drying pants, and skin clothing. , Jackets, etc. will use nylon 66 fiber.
Two, military uniform
Nylon 66 fiber materials are mainly used in the production of combat clothing and field equipment for the US military and the armed forces of developed countries. The military industry is equipped with nylon 6 and nylon 66 products, accounting for 88:12, 60:40 in Europe and the United States. The raw material of nylon 66 is domestically produced with adiponitrile, and the cost is reduced. This will sweep nylon 66 into the last of my country’s military products. Obstacles. Some nylon fiber companies believe that the application of nylon 66 fiber in domestic military clothing is still in its infancy. After the localization of adiponitrile, nylon 66 will upgrade my country's military uniforms. This is a potential application field.
3. New energy vehicles, rail transit
"Plastic instead of steel" has become a trend. PA66 relies on multiple performance advantages such as light weight, heat resistance, high temperature resistance, high strength, etc., while meeting the needs of vehicle weight reduction. New energy vehicles and rail transportation have become the demand for nylon 66. New driving force for Nylon 66 not only reduces the amount of metal used in auto parts, but also reduces energy consumption caused by welding and other steps in the processing of parts. PA66 is an ideal material for many applications such as electric vehicle circuit breakers, lithium battery frames and shells, high-voltage cable ducts, charging plugs and sockets, engine control units, sensors, cooling valves and connectors.
At present, using any ratio or formula to predict the consumption of adiponitrile and nylon 66 in the next five or ten years is of reference significance, but a basic fact is that nylon 66 has better overall performance than nylon 6, and adiponitrile production With the expansion of scale and the reduction of cost, the application potential of nylon 66 will be released quickly, and it will even show a geometric growth. At present, there is a consensus in the industry that in the next two to three years, the demand for adiponitrile and nylon 66 can completely double. In the next 5-10 years, the demand for adiponitrile will reach a certain marginal production cost, and the demand for nylon 66 will reach the current 400 of nylon 6. The demand for 10,000 tons is not impossible. According to the consumption of 0.520 tons of hexamethylene diamine to produce 1 ton of nylon 66, the demand for adiponitrile is only 2 million tons.
China, which will soon become the world's largest adiponitrile-nylon 66 market, is worth looking forward to!
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