This Round of Refined Oil Retail Prices in China Will See a 'Triple Increase'

February 24 news

The current round of China's refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on February 24. The retail price of refined oil will be increased again in this round. In 2026, the retail price of refined oil has seen three increases, zero decreases, and one suspension. During this cycle, crude oil prices have risen, and the crude oil change rate has remained positive, indicating that the retail price of refined oil is about to see a "three consecutive increases."

Entering this pricing cycle, international oil prices have shown an upward trend. As of the 23rd, the settlement price for the April contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures stood at $66.31 per barrel, while the settlement price for the April contract of Brent crude oil futures reached $71.49 per barrel. During this pricing cycle, crude oil prices rose due to a confluence of positive factors, including heightened tensions in U.S.-Iran relations and escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The core driver was the significant disruption to short-term supply, coupled with a rebound in geopolitical risk premiums, which triggered a concentrated release of bullish market sentiment and led to a substantial increase in crude oil prices. On the other hand, global crude oil inventories declined more than expected, further fueling the sustained rise in oil prices. Overall, crude oil prices have risen during this cycle. As of the 24th, on the 10th working day, the rate of change for crude oil varieties reached 3.55%. Accordingly, gasoline prices in China will be raised by 175 CNY per ton, and diesel prices by 170 CNY per ton—equivalent to an increase of 0.13 yuan per liter for 89# gasoline, 0.13 yuan per liter for 92# gasoline, 0.14 yuan per liter for 95# gasoline, and 0.14 yuan per liter for 0# diesel.

Gasoline: Shandong independent refineries are operating relatively stably, with an average operating rate of around 53%. Recently, the operating rates of major refineries across China have increased, leading to a rise in inventory levels for some units. Due to the Spring Festival holiday, there has been an increase in residents' travel and other activities, resulting in higher usage of private cars. This ensures a certain level of demand for gasoline in China. However, the increasing popularity of new energy vehicles has led to gasoline demand falling short of expectations, causing the gasoline market to remain volatile.

Regarding diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has seen a slight increase, while on the demand side, outdoor end-use entities have suspended operations and gone on holiday. Construction sites and engineering projects across various regions are also on break. During the Spring Festival holiday, logistics and transportation have come to a standstill, further weakening demand in the diesel market and driving diesel prices to remain at low levels.

Looking ahead: In the short term, oil prices will still be dominated by supply disruptions and geopolitical risks. Recently, with supply disruptions not yet fully subsiding, escalating geopolitical risks, and strong expectations of OPEC pausing production increases, oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. In China, refinery operating rates are not expected to change significantly in the short term, and the supply of refined oil products remains normal. For gasoline, demand has been decent due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday. As the holiday ends and travel returns to normal, it is expected that gasoline prices will mainly fluctuate. There are currently no positive factors for diesel demand, and overall performance is average, with diesel prices expected to remain weak.