Supply and Demand Loosening—February Sees a Noticeable Decline in Butanol Prices

March 2nd, according to the news

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of February 28, 2025, the reference price for n-butanol in Shandong, China was 6,033 CNY per ton. Compared to February 1 (when the reference price for n-butanol was 6,663 CNY per ton), the price decreased by 630 yuan, a decrease of 9.45%.

Insufficient Effective Support, Shandong Region's n-Butanol Market Under Pressure and Declining in February

From the commodity market analysis system, it can be seen that throughout February, the overall performance of the n-butanol market in Shandong, China showed a weak downward trend. In the early part of the month, the decline in the n-butanol market was evident, with insufficient effective support within the market. The focus of n-butanol prices continued to shift downwards, and negotiations within the market were repeatedly lowered. On February 13th, the price of n-butanol in Shandong fell to its lowest point of the month, at around 6000-6050 CNY per ton.

During the Spring Festival holiday, the n-butanol market in Shandong remained calm with little change in the market situation. After the holiday, some n-butanol factories in Shandong slightly increased the prices of n-butanol by 50-100 CNY per ton. By the end of the month, the n-butanol market had not shown a significant recovery, and the overall market situation was stable with minor fluctuations.

Core Impact Factors Analysis

Insufficient Demand Support: On the eve of the Spring Festival, market purchasing activity was sluggish, and traditional downstream markets showed weak performance. Core downstream industries such as coatings and plasticizers exhibited only moderate restocking behavior before the holiday, and factories have gradually shut down for the break, leading to a continuous decline in procurement demand. As a result, the market has grown increasingly resistant to high-priced goods. Support from emerging sectors is also weakening: demand growth in new applications such as electric vehicle battery materials and biodegradable plastics has yet to fully materialize, making it difficult to offset the downturn in traditional sectors.

Supply is Adequate: Before the holiday, the overall market supply in China was sufficient, with inventory pressure gradually becoming apparent. Major manufacturers proactively reduced prices, and large n-butanol producers in Shandong actively shipped goods, leading to a significant price drop, which in turn drove down the overall market prices.

Future Market Forecast

As the Spring Festival holiday comes to an end, downstream factories are gradually resuming production and operations, and rigid demand procurement will slowly pick up. However, the market as a whole still faces some inventory pressure. According to analysts specializing in n-butanol data, in the short term, the n-butanol market is expected to see price fluctuations primarily within a narrow range, with prices likely to hover around 6,000 to 6,100 CNY per ton. Further attention should be paid to changes in supply-and-demand fundamentals.