Bullish Factors Remain, April Adipic Acid Prices in China Expected to Rise

April 2nd News

According to monitoring data: Since March, due to geopolitical conflicts and cost support, the adipic acid market in China has experienced a sharp rise, followed by a correction and stabilization, with an overall price increase of over 30%. Entering early April, the upward trend of adipic acid prices continued. On March 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8,300 CNY/ton, and on April 2nd, it rose to 10,833 CNY/ton, an increase of 30.52%.

How will the adipic acid market in China perform in April?

Supply and Demand Forecast

Cost Side: Geopolitical conflicts continue to exert influence, and the prices of upstream raw materials—such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone—still show upward momentum, providing strong support for the rising trend in adipic acid prices. On April 1, industry leader Hualu Hengsheng raised its adipic acid factory price by 400 CNY/ton to 11,100 CNY/ton. Cost pressures are gradually being passed down to downstream sectors.

Supply Side: In April, there was no new production capacity in the market. Several leading adipic acid producers in China still had their facilities shut down, with the market operating at around 60-70%. The reduction in supply meant that manufacturers did not face pressure to sell, and the sentiment of holding back from selling increased.

Demand Side: The operating rates of traditional downstream sectors such as terminal pulp, shoe sole raw liquid, PA66, and TPU are low (less than 50%), making cost transmission difficult. There is a low acceptance of high prices, and terminal demand is unlikely to see explosive growth, remaining relatively stable.

Technical Level Forecast

According to the price trend chart of adipic acid in the commodity market analysis system, a key indicator shows that after the 10-day moving average crossed above the 20-day moving average on March 10, it has since crossed below by the end of March. At the beginning of April, it is expected to cross above again, indicating a high probability of an increase in the price of adipic acid. Throughout April, the adipic acid market in China will remain in a high-level fluctuation, with a trend of strengthening through fluctuations.

Auxiliary indicators: At the beginning of April, the price of adipic acid was at a 10-day high and a 20-day mid-low position, with a 10-day overbought condition and a 1-year overbought condition. This also somewhat confirms that in April, the adipic acid market in China showed a trend of high-level fluctuation and upward fluctuation.

In summary: The forecast based on supply and demand indicates high costs, tight supply, and steady demand, leading to a strong upward trend for adipic acid in April. From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the price of adipic acid in April is moving at a high level, with limited potential for further price increases. Therefore, the overall trend for adipic acid in April will be an oscillating rise, with prices expected to range between 10,700 and 11,500 yuan.