Caustic Soda Prices Consolidate This Week (Apr. 6–Apr. 10)

April 10 news

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity analysis system, the price of caustic soda in China remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning to the end of the week was 738 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10.98% compared to the same period last year. On April 9th, the chemical index was 1083 points, down 4 points from yesterday, and down 22.64% from the highest point of 1400 points (October 23, 2021). Compared to the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020, it has increased by 81.10%. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011, to the present.)

II. Market Analysis

According to the commodity analysis system, the caustic soda prices were consolidating this week. In Shandong, the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda was around 670-810 CNY/ton. In Zhejiang, the caustic soda prices remained stable, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda delivered to Xiaoshan around 1000-1050 CNY/ton. In Inner Mongolia, the caustic soda prices were consolidating, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda (on a 100% basis) around 2300-2400 CNY/ton. This week, the post-holiday production rate of caustic soda increased, but inventory clearance was not significant, leading to an inventory accumulation trend. Downstream buyers were cautious, and the shipping pace of enterprises slowed down. The Jiangsu region, affected by the low prices in Shandong, faced the most obvious inventory pressure. The futures price of alumina has been continuously falling, and currently, producers are in a wait-and-see mode, resulting in scarce spot transactions and cautious procurement of caustic soda.

Analysts believe that in the near term, caustic soda prices will consolidate this week. Recently, downstream sectors in China have been purchasing according to demand, but there has not been a substantial improvement in demand. Caustic soda producers still face significant inventory pressure, and downstream resistance continues. The overall supply and demand dynamics suggest that caustic soda prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on the specific demand from the downstream market.