This week, the Aniline market in China saw a slight increase (4.13-4.17)

April 17th News

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of Aniline slightly increased this week. The market price of Aniline in China was 11,362 CNY/ton on April 13 and 11,662 CNY/ton on April 17, rising by 2.64% during the period, and up by 52.95% compared to the same period last year.

II. Analysis and Commentary

During the week, the aniline market saw stable trading activity, with companies experiencing smooth sales and good inventory reduction. Market supply has shifted from loose to tight, prompting aniline manufacturers to actively push for price increases. Downstream buyers are entering the market based on demand, with most purchases driven by immediate needs. On the raw material side, prices have been fluctuating within a narrow range, weakening their support for aniline. Consequently, the upward trend in aniline prices is primarily driven by improvements in supply and demand dynamics.

On the cost side: During the week, the price range for pure benzene has been volatile. In the short term, both domestic and imported petroleum benzene supplies are expected to decline—particularly imports, which are forecast to keep shrinking. As a result, China’s supply-and-demand dynamics for pure benzene are becoming increasingly strong, providing significant support for future hydrogenated benzene prices. The market is likely to continue its volatile yet generally bullish trend.

III. Technical Analysis

As shown by the spot price curve from Xianhuotong, the current daily average price of Aniline is trending upward relative to both the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. Meanwhile, the short-term 10-day moving average has entered a phase of temporary entanglement with the spot price over the recent period, indicating that the short-term market has broken away from the previous unidirectional upward trend and is now entering a phase of volatile consolidation.

From a price percentile perspective, as of April 16, the price of Aniline is at a high level across 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, and one-year timeframes, indicating that Aniline is currently in a relatively high historical price range, with limited room for further price increases.

4. Future Market Expectations

The current aniline market in China is mainly digesting the price increase, with no significant changes expected in the market fundamentals in the short term. It is projected that the aniline market will continue to operate at high levels, and close attention should be paid to the changes in raw materials and market supply and demand.