August 14th News
Today, the urea market in China is showing a clear signal of decline, with all average difference indicators falling. The industry is experiencing two major developments: the commissioning of Dushanzi Petrochemical's green urea facility to increase capacity, and the first self-operated export of urea from Qinghai to ASEAN, expanding demand channels. Current prices are at a short-term low and mid-range over a 1-year cycle. Attention should be paid to how changes in the supply and demand dynamics will affect prices going forward.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Indicator | (2026.08.13) | (2026.08.12) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | -15.25 | -11.75 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | -7.5 | -4.75 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | -12.13 | -9.88 | - |
II. Signal Status Determination
Three differences all show a completely consistent downward trend compared to the previous day, and they are all negative, which is a clear signal of a decline.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is clearly downward. The reason: The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages all showed a downward trend compared to the previous day, with their directions of change consistently negative—fully meeting the criteria for a clear downward trend as defined by the moving average difference method.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day cycle price position: low, with limited downside space
Price position for the 3-month cycle: Low, with limited downside potential.
1 year cycle price position: median, with relatively balanced room for increase and decrease
Overall, the short to medium-term prices are in a low range, and the room for further decline may be somewhat limited.
5. Trend Chart Display
Six, Industry Updates
On August 11, the fertilizer unit of the Tarim Phase II Green and Low-Carbon Demonstration Project of Dushanzi Petrochemical, which is EPC contracted by China Wuhuan Engineering Co., Ltd. under China National Chemical Engineering, successfully completed its first feedstock trial run in Korla, Xinjiang, producing green urea products with quality indicators better than national standards. The new production capacity will supplement market supply.
On August 11, an international cargo train loaded with 1,150 tons of self-produced urea from Qinghai Yuntianhua International Fertilizer Co., Ltd. departed from the Xining Shuangzhai Logistics Center of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, bound for Vientiane, Laos. This marks the first self-export of urea produced in Qinghai, signifying a new breakthrough in the construction of an international logistics channel from Qinghai to ASEAN.
On August 11, the latest factory price of medium-sized urea from China's Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. was 1685 CNY per ton, with a price reduction of 20 CNY per ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.
Seven, Reference of Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain in China
Upstream commodities: anthracite, liquid ammonia, liquefied natural gas
Downstream products: sodium bromide, tert-butylamine, propylene carbonate, aminosulfonic acid, late indica rice, early indica rice, compound fertilizer, guanidine, urea-formaldehyde resins, barbituric acid, diacetyl urea, acetyl urea, trithiobiuret, biuret, melamine, wheat, corn
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
