2026 Week 19 Commodity Weekly Report: Chemicals Lead Decline, Energy and Non-ferrous Metals Show Strength in Some Areas

May 15th, according to the news,

In the 19th week of 2026 (May 11-15), the Chinese commodity market showed a pattern of more declines than increases. The raw material market and the spot-futures market, which are being tracked, weakened in tandem, with the chemical sector leading the decline. However, some varieties in the energy and non-ferrous metal sectors rose against the trend. Price monitoring data shows that the average change rate for raw materials in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets this week was -0.54%, and the average change rate for spot-futures commodities was -0.48%, indicating that the overall market is under pressure.

I. Shanghai and Shenzhen Raw Materials Markets: Nearly 60% of Commodities Declined, with Significant Divergence in the Chemical Industry

This week in the Shanghai and Shenzhen raw materials market, 46 types of commodities increased on a week-over-week basis, accounting for 27.38%; 90 types of commodities decreased, accounting for 53.57%; and 32 types of commodities remained unchanged, accounting for 19.05%. The rising varieties were mainly concentrated in the chemical and energy sectors, while the falling varieties were primarily in the chemical and non-ferrous metal sectors, with significant differentiation within the sectors.

(1) Price Increase Ranking: Chemical products lead the way, with sulfur and yellow phosphorus ranking at the top in terms of price increases.

This week, the top 3 commodities with price increases all come from the chemical sector, with sulfur, yellow phosphorus, and phosphoric acid leading in price increases, followed closely by coke from the energy sector.

Sulfur: Prices at the beginning of the week were 7,050 CNY/ton, rising to 7,583.33 CNY/ton by the end of the week—a weekly price increase of 7.56%, representing a year-on-year surge of 205.25%. This makes sulfur the commodity with the highest price increase across the board.

Yellow phosphorus: At the beginning of the week, the price was 28,896 CNY/ton; by the end of the week, it had risen to 30,796 CNY/ton. The weekly price increase was 6.58%, and the year-on-year increase was 32.19%.

Phosphoric acid: At the beginning of the week, it was 8,620 CNY/ton, and by the end of the week, it was 9,050 CNY/ton, with a weekly price increase of 4.99%, and a year-on-year increase of 32.12%.

Coke: The best performer in the energy sector, with a price of 1560 CNY/ton at the beginning of the week and 1637.50 CNY/ton at the end of the week, a weekly price increase of 4.97%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.10%.

In addition, chemical products such as toluene (+4.84%), maleic anhydride (+3.73%), and polymeric MDI (+2.64%), as well as nonferrous metals including zinc (+2.52%) and copper (+1.16%), all saw price increases to varying degrees.

(2) Price Decline List: Chemical products lead the decline, with liquid ammonia experiencing a price decrease exceeding 10%.

This week, the commodities with a price decrease of over 5% are mainly concentrated in the chemical sector. Liquid ammonia, n-propanol, and isooctanol rank in the top three for price decreases, and the overall market sentiment is pessimistic.

Liquid ammonia: At the beginning of the week, the price was 2,513.33 CNY/ton, but by the end of the week, it had fallen to 2,246.67 CNY/ton, representing a weekly price decrease of 10.61%. It was the only product this week to experience a price decline exceeding 10%.

n-Propyl alcohol: At the beginning of the week, the price was 7,800 CNY/ton; by the end of the week, it had dropped to 7,133.33 CNY/ton, representing a weekly price decrease of 8.55% and a year-on-year decline of 7.56%.

Isooctanol: At the beginning of the week, the price was 8,966.67 CNY/ton; by the end of the week, it had dropped to 8,366.67 CNY/ton, representing a weekly price decrease of 6.69% and a year-on-year increase of 12.56%.

Among the products experiencing price declines are chemicals such as propylene oxide (-5.00%), propylene glycol (-4.56%), and acetic acid (-4.15%); non-ferrous metals including nickel (-2.96%) and gold (-2.12%); and agricultural products like palm oil (-3.62%).

II. Market Review by Sector: Chemicals Show Divergence, Energy Remains Strong, Non-Ferrous Metals Fluctuate

(1) Chemicals Sector: A Tale of Two Extremes—Phosphorus Chemicals Soar, While Alcohols Weaken.

The chemical sector was the core of volatility this week, showing a divergent pattern with phosphorus chemicals strengthening and alcohols along with some intermediates weakening. Upstream sulfur, driven by tight supply and cost increases, saw a significant rise, pulling up yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid in tandem; while downstream products such as liquid ammonia, n-propanol, and isooctanol experienced sharp price declines due to weak demand and high inventory, highlighting a significant mismatch between supply and demand within the sector.

(2) Energy Sector: Local Strength, Coking Coal and Thermal Coal Show Resilience Against Declines

The energy sector as a whole showed relatively strong performance. Coking coal benefited from cost support from coking coal prices and the restocking demand from downstream steel mills, resulting in a weekly price increase of nearly 5%. Thermal coal, gasoline, and liquefied petroleum gas saw modest gains, while only liquefied natural gas (-2.51%) and fuel oil (-0.41%) experienced slight declines. Overall, the supply-demand dynamics within the sector remain relatively stable.

(3) Non-ferrous metals: Weak and volatile, zinc and copper show resilience while nickel and gold weaken

The non-ferrous metals sector experienced fluctuating operations, with zinc and copper seeing small increases due to positive expectations for industrial demand; nickel and gold, however, faced pressure and declined as a result of a decrease in market risk preference and a stronger US dollar. Gold saw a weekly price decrease of 2.12%, ending its previous strong performance. Overall, the sector exhibited a trend where industrial metals were relatively strong, while precious metals were weaker.

(4) Agricultural and sideline products sector: Minor fluctuations, with eggs rising and oils falling

The agricultural and sideline products sector showed mixed performance: egg prices rose slightly (+1.10%) due to declining breeding costs and a rebound in demand; oilseed varieties such as palm oil and rapeseed oil fell amid ample supply and weak demand, while live hog prices (-1.03%) continued their weak trend. Overall, agricultural products lack clear, sustained trends.

III. Outlook for the Future Market: In the Short Term, Pay Attention to Marginal Changes in Supply and Demand Under Pressure

This week, the overall commodity market in China has weakened, with the core drag factors being weak demand for chemicals and high inventories of some varieties. At the same time, fluctuations in macro sentiment and a stronger US dollar have also put pressure on the market. In the short term, the market will continue to face pressure, but the following marginal changes need to be watched:

Chemical sector: Track the price trends of upstream raw materials such as sulfur, and the recovery of downstream demand, while paying attention to the continued divergence between phosphate chemicals and alcohol varieties in China.

Energy sector: Focus on the supply and demand changes of coke, and pay attention to the restocking pace of steel mills and the fluctuation of coking coal costs in China.

Non-ferrous metals: Pay attention to the trend of the US dollar and the recovery of industrial demand, and focus on the support strength of zinc, copper, and other varieties.

Overall, it is expected that the commodity market will remain volatile next week, with the chemical sector still being the core of fluctuations. Some structural opportunities may arise in certain energy and non-ferrous metal products, and it will be necessary to continuously monitor supply and demand data as well as changes in macroeconomic policies in China.