Since May, the natural rubber market has shown a pattern of initial strength followed by weakness, with prices fluctuating at high levels.

May 22 news

Since May 2026, the natural rubber market has first strengthened and then weakened, with high volatility. As of May 22, the spot price of natural rubber in China's market is around 17,500 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.53% from 16,408 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 2.55% from the cycle high of 17,958 CNY/ton. In early May, the upward trend of natural rubber continued, with prices approaching the 18,000 CNY/ton mark after the holiday; in mid-to-late May, the market trend turned to fluctuating downward.

In the early stages of tapping in Southeast Asian producing regions, El Niño-induced high temperatures and drought caused delays in rubber tapping operations, resulting in a tight supply of raw materials and a significant rise in the price of Thai cup rubber. Meanwhile, inventories in China’s Qingdao bonded zone saw a slight decline, and with downstream tire manufacturers resuming production and replenishing their stocks, bullish sentiment in the market surged. Later on, as rainfall increased in Southeast Asian producing regions, Thailand, Vietnam, and China’s Hainan and Yunnan provinces gradually entered the full tapping season, leading to a steady increase in raw material supply and an easing of spot market availability. However, the downstream tire market is currently in its traditional off-season, with low operating rates for both all-steel and semi-steel tires, insufficient foreign trade orders, and manufacturers purchasing only as needed, reflecting weak demand driven by genuine requirements.

In the downstream tire industry, weak demand persists. May is traditionally a slow season, and coupled with persistently high costs, tire companies have seen only a slight rebound in operating rates, which remain generally low. Finished-product inventories are piling up, and there’s insufficient growth in export orders. Demand in the non-tire sector remains stable, making it difficult to generate meaningful upward momentum overall. As of the week ending May 16, Chinese tire companies’ semi-steel tire operating rate stood at 75%; Shandong-based tire companies’ all-steel tire operating rate was 68%. China’s tire companies’ all-steel tire finished-product inventory reached 40.1 days, an increase of 1.2 days from the previous week; semi-steel tire finished-product inventory came in at 44.6 days, up 0.9 days week-on-week.

Port inventory saw a slight increase: As of May 17, 2026, the combined inventory volume of natural rubber under bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area totaled 603,400 tons, up 0.72% from the previous month.

Market Outlook:

Overall, in the short term (late May to early June), the natural rubber market in China will maintain a weak and range-bound fluctuation. The supply side's seasonal increase continues to suppress prices, while the demand side remains in the off-season with inventory pressure still present, making it difficult for rubber prices to rebound.

From the natural rubber average difference chart, it can be seen that in early May, the average difference remained at a high level with fluctuations, and the peak of the average difference exceeded 250 CNY/ton, reflecting a strong market sentiment for buying. After mid-May, the average difference continued to decline, and currently, it has fallen to around 40 CNY/ton, indicating that prices are gradually returning to the mean, and the previous upward momentum has significantly weakened. In the short term, the decline in the average difference, combined with an increase in seasonal supply, makes it difficult to change the weak fluctuation pattern of rubber prices, with strong support near 17,000 CNY/ton. If, in the medium term, supply falls short of expectations or demand improves marginally, the average difference may rise again, and rubber prices may experience a phased rebound. Overall, rubber prices have shifted from a previously strong upward trend to a weaker fluctuation, and caution is advised against chasing the rally.